Some features of the ASCE Shopping cart and login features of the website will be down for maintenance on Sunday, June 16th, 2024, beginning at 12:00 A.M. ET and ending at 6:00 A.M. ET. During this time if you need immediate assistance at 1-800-548-2723 or [email protected].

Chapter
Apr 26, 2012

Does Downscaling in Space and Time Degrade the Dependability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts?

Publication: World Environmental and Water Resource Congress 2006: Examining the Confluence of Environmental and Water Concerns

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issues total precipitation and average temperature forecasts for 3-month periods for relatively large areas (forecast divisions are about 9 x 104 km2). Incorporation of the climate forecasts into farm level decision support systems necessitates downscaling the forecasts to local and daily time scales. Since any measure of the skill of seasonal climate forecasts is expected to depend on scale (specifically, more skillful for larger areas and longer time periods), there is concern that downscaling will dilute current forecast skill, possibly to the point of non-utility. As an initial exploration, this study will determine any change in die dependability of precipitation and average temperature forecasts downscaled to local and monthly time scales for several locations in Oklahoma. Dependability is a skill measure that assesses only those forecasts that are discernibly different from climatology. Downscaling to daily time scales is done in two steps, first to monthly forecasts, and then to generated ensembles of daily forecasts. This initial study will examine only the first step, the monthly downscaling. In order to assess the relative impact of downscaling in space versus time, forecasts will be downscaled separately in each, and then downscaled in both. Current forecast dependability for Oklahoma at the larger scales is limited compared to regions of the US that experience stronger ENSO impacts, so any degradation from downscaling to monthly forecasts and specific locations should be readily apparent.

Get full access to this chapter

View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to World Environmental and Water Resource Congress 2006
World Environmental and Water Resource Congress 2006: Examining the Confluence of Environmental and Water Concerns
Pages: 1 - 6

History

Published online: Apr 26, 2012

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

ASCE Technical Topics:

Authors

Affiliations

J. M. Schneider [email protected]
USDA ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory, 7207 West Cheyenne Street, El Reno, OK 73036. E-mail: [email protected]
J. D. Garbrecht [email protected]
USDA ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory, 7207 West Cheyenne Street, El Reno, OK 73036. E-mail: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Paper
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Paper
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share