Climatic Risk to Cotton Production in the Ogallala Aquifer Region

Renewed interest in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production in the Ogallala aquifer region can be tied to increased profitability associated with the growing demand for cotton, development of short-season varieties, rising energy costs, and declining water levels in the Ogallala Aquifer. However, the feasibility of growing cotton considering climatic characteristics of the region has not been determined. In this study, we used a county-wise daily maximum and minimum air temperature database to assess climatic suitability for farming cotton in the Ogallala aquifer region. For this purpose, a 30-year (1971–2000) climatic dataset was obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Exceedance probability curves for total heat units accumulated during growing season were developed and used to identify those counties that are suitable for farming cotton at different exceedance probability levels. Results indicate that counties in the southern high plains region provide suitable climatic conditions to grow cotton as expected. However, counties in the central high plains that include the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and southern Kansas require varieties adopted for cooler and shorter growing seasons. Out of 131 counties, 102 counties receive 1800 or more heat units during the planting season at least once every two years. Significant water savings is possible if producers were to switch 50 percent of their corn acreage to cotton. Furthermore, information derived from this study is of interest to producers and commodity groups, seed developers, crop insurance companies and water resource management agencies.