Epistemic Uncertainty in Site Response as Derived from One-Dimensional Ground Response Analyses
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Volume 147, Issue 1
Abstract
One-dimensional ground response analyses (GRAs) are often used with an expectation that they provide unbiased estimates of site effects. Under that hypothesis, epistemic uncertainty in site response arises mainly from uncertain soil properties. This approach has dominated practice for projects where site-specific site response is estimated for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. We extend the uncertainty framework to also consider modeling errors (i.e., inability of GRAs to model site response for some sites). We quantify this epistemic uncertainty using vertical array data in which the downhole motion is input to GRAs to predict ground motions at the surface. Residuals (i.e., difference between observed and predicted ground motion intensity measures in natural log units) are partitioned into between- and within-site components. After correcting for overprediction bias near the site period, we quantify epistemic uncertainty using between-site standard deviation, which ranges from 0.2 to 0.35 using California data. A Japan data set analyzed in the literature provides similar results. This dispersion is only modestly smaller than the site-to-site variability from ergodic models for active tectonic regions, which limits the apparent benefits of site-specific GRAs. Dispersion results are not appreciably affected by varying damping models, although a model informed by site-specific observations minimizes bias relative to alternative models based on geotechnical laboratory tests and seismological crustal attenuation studies.
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Data Availability Statement
The data used in this study is publically available (Afshari et al. 2018). Details on the data set and how to access it are provided in Afshari et al. (2019).
Acknowledgments
Funding for this study was provided by the California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program, California Geological Survey, Agreement No. 1014-961. Partial support was also provided by the UCLA Civil and Environmental Engineering Department. This support is gratefully acknowledged. We are appreciative of Tadahiro Kishida of the Khalifa University of Science Technology and Research and Yousef Bozorgnia of UCLA for providing access to data processing codes and their efforts in developing data resources used in this study. We also thank Hamid Haddadi of CSMIP for providing weak motion records from the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data FTP folders, and Javier Vargas Ortiz, Bahareh Heidarzadeh, and Jamison Steidl for providing geotechnical logs for vertical array sites considered in this project. We appreciate constructive feedback on this general line of research from Julian Bommer, Eric Thompson, James Kaklamanos, and Adrian Rodriguez-Marek. We appreciate the reviews of this paper by James Kaklamanos, Fabian Bonilla, one anonymous reviewer, and the associate editor.
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Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 147 • Issue 1 • January 2021
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Nov 2, 2019
Accepted: Jul 14, 2020
Published online: Oct 19, 2020
Published in print: Jan 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Mar 19, 2021
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