Probability and Risk of Slope Failure
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 134, Issue 12
Abstract
This paper aims to demystify the use of risk assessment as a decision management tool and present a methodology that places quantitative risk assessment within reach of every geotechnical engineer, even for routine engineering assignments. In particular, we propose using quantification of expert judgment (i.e., subjective probabilities) as a practical alternative for determining probability of slope failure. The writers present a semiempirical relationship between factor of safety and annual probability of failure that permits estimation of slope failure probabilities with relatively modest effort. The case study for a tailings dam shows that risk assessment based on quantification of expert judgment provides a framework to arrive at rational management and engineering decisions related to dam safety and other geotechnical problems. Using the semiempirical relationship presented here, practicing engineers can use this helpful tool by applying their current skills.
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Acknowledgments
The many projects summarized in Fig. 1 benefitted from the engineering skills of many of the writers’ colleagues, including Gregory Baecher, Ralph Grismala, Lilly Lee, Thom Neff, Anastasia Papadopoulos, José Ramos, Mario Troconis, and Robert V. Whitman. Lisa Bendixen and John Christian helped with insightful discussions related to probability and risk. Several of the figures in this paper were drawn by Mark Bethoney.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 134 • Issue 12 • December 2008
Pages: 1691 - 1699
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Jul 26, 2005
Accepted: Jan 2, 2008
Published online: Dec 1, 2008
Published in print: Dec 2008
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