Reconstruction of the Building Infrastructure: Two Performance Prediction Models
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 9, Issue 1
Abstract
The total value of civil infrastructure (roads, buildings, and underground services) in North America is estimated at $20 trillion. Due to its large size and the need for minimal interruption to services, maintaining the infrastructure becomes a huge challenge. Motivated by the large cost overruns and delays in most infrastructure reconstruction work, this research sheds some light on the performance of such projects and their risky environment. The paper presents two predictive models of the overall performance of reconstruction projects using a simple measure, project performance factor to combine cost performance, schedule performance, and quality performance. Using 54 case studies of past reconstruction projects, a micromodel as well as a macromodel were developed through experimentation with statistical analysis and artificial neural networks. Using the developed models, a Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of uncertainty in project conditions on performance predictions. Guidelines for improving reconstruction of building infrastructure for owner organizations are then provided.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 9 • Issue 1 • March 2003
Pages: 26 - 34
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 27, 2001
Accepted: Jul 23, 2002
Published online: Feb 14, 2003
Published in print: Mar 2003
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