Prediction Models for Annual Break Rates of Water Mains
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Volume 23, Issue 1
Abstract
Annual break rates are often used by municipalities as one of the most important criteria in rating the condition of water mains. This paper presents the development of deterioration models that predict the annual break rates of water mains considering pipe material, diameter, age, and length. The data used in this paper are collected from a Canadian municipality that has a large water distribution network. The collected data cover pipe break records of of water mains. Five multiple regression models are developed, which show robust statistical analysis. Twenty percent of break data were randomly selected for validation in which the developed models demonstrate satisfactory results. The research presented in this paper is expected to be useful to academics and practitioners (municipal engineers, consultants, and contractors) in analyzing deterioration trends of water mains.
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Acknowledgments
The writers would like to thank Mr. Denis Gagnon and Mr. Denis Dufour for their support in providing the break data of Quebec city (Ste-Foy). The writers also wish to acknowledge the internal financial support provided by the Faculty of Engineering and Computer Science of Concordia University for this research.
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© 2009 ASCE.
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Received: Sep 20, 2007
Accepted: Jun 30, 2008
Published online: Feb 1, 2009
Published in print: Feb 2009
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