Decision Analysis Applied to Tunnel Exploration Planning. II: Consideration of Uncertainty
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Volume 133, Issue 5
Abstract
Tunnel exploration is a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. This paper, Part II, dealing with the exploration problem, discusses the sources of uncertainty in tunnel exploration, and provides techniques to formally incorporate uncertainties into the exploration planning. Part I described the state of uncertainty in geology and exploration reliability using assigned probabilities. These probabilities are, however, uncertain. Construction costs are also uncertain. This paper presents tools with which the decision maker is able to assess the effects of these uncertainties on exploration decisions. Decisions are therefore made based on the value of collecting new, uncertain information through “virtual” exploration prior to actually exploring.
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Acknowledgments
The writers would like to acknowledge that the data for the Sucheon Tunnel were made available by the Korean Railroad Institute (KRRI) and SK Engineering and Construction. In particular, the help of J.-S. Lee in this regard was instrumental. The writers would also like to thank the anonymous ASCE reviewers for many useful comments and suggestions which led to significant improvement of this paper.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 133 • Issue 5 • May 2007
Pages: 354 - 363
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Jan 4, 2006
Accepted: Oct 19, 2006
Published online: May 1, 2007
Published in print: May 2007
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