Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change under Changing Climate Along the Indian Coastline
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 146, Issue 5
Abstract
The climate change induced by global warming is predicted to change the rate of sea level rise (SLR) and that of shoreline shifts. In this study, the SLR as well as the resulting retreat of shorelines has been predicted at a series of locations along the Indian coastline to understand the future of India’s beaches. The beach segments near 13 major ports where increasing infrastructure requirements are likely to arise in future are considered. The future SLR is predicted on the basis of an ensemble of general circulation models corresponding to stabilized and worst-case global warming scenarios. This showed that the rate of absolute SLR would be in the range 3.38–5.16 mm/year with a mean of 4.56 mm/year for the stabilized scenario called representative concentration pathway (RCP)-4.5 and 5.36–7.2 mm/year with a mean of 6.63 mm/year for the worst-case RCP-8.5 at the selected locations. The maximum rate of SLR could be experienced near the New Mangalore port area while the minimum could be seen near the Chennai and Ennore ports. Additionally, Cochin and Tuticorin ports could also experience the same SLR as the New Mangalore port for the RCP-8.5 scenario. The shoreline recession in response to SLR was evaluated using Bruun’s rule. The results of Bruun’s rule indicated that the future recession of shorelines at selected coastal stretches might vary between 14.10–29.22 m and 21.05–45.40 m up to the year 2100 for RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 respectively. Similarly, by this time, area-wise maximum horizontal inundation could happen near the Mumbai port region, although it is the Port Blair area where the maximum percentage increase in horizontal inundation could be experienced for both the scenarios. In general, as compared to the west coast locations, the east coast sites would undergo smaller area inundation due to relatively lower SLR and resulting shoreline change.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Black, K. P., et al. 2018. Vol. 1 of Climate change adaptation guidelines for coastal protection and management in India, 209–229. edited by K. P. Black, M. Baba, and J. Mathew. Global Environment Facility and Asian Development Bank.
Bruun, P. 1954. Coast erosion and the development of beach profiles. Technical Memorandum No. 44. Beach Erosion Board. Vicksburg, MS: US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station.
Byravan, S., S. C. Rajan, and R. Rangarajan. 2010. Sea level rise: Impacts on major infrastructure, ecosystems and land along the Tamil Nadu coast. Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India: Institute of Financial Management and Research.
Cheon, S.-H., and K.-D. Suh. 2016. “Effect of sea level rise on nearshore significant waves and coastal structures.” Ocean Eng. 114: 280–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.01.026.
Church, J. A., P. U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J. M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M. A. Merrifield, G. A. Milne, and R. S. Nerem. 2013. “Sea level change.” In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. contribution of working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, edited by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley. 1140. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Clark, A. J., and X. Liu. 1994. “Interannual sea level in the Northern and Eastern Indian Ocean.” J. Phys. Oceanogr. 24 (6): 1224–1235. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024%3C1224:ISLITN%3E2.0.CO;2.
Dean, R. G. 1991. “Equilibrium beach profiles: Characteristics and applications.” J. Coastal Res. 7 (1): 53–84.
Dean, R. G., and J. R. Houston. 2016. “Determining shoreline response to sea level rise.” Coastal Eng. 114: 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.03.009.
Emery, K. O., and D. G. Aubrey. 1989. “Tide gauges of India.” J. Coastal Res. 5 (3): 489–501.
Enríquez, A. R., M. Marcos, A. Álvarez-Ellacuría, A. Orfila, and D. Gomis. 2017. “Changes in beach shoreline due to sea level rise and waves under climate change scenarios: Application to the Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean).” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 17 (7): 1075–1089. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1075-2017.
Hallermeier, R. J. 1981. “A profile zonation for seasonal sand beaches from wave climate.” Coastal Eng. 4: 253–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3839(80)90022-8.
Han, W., et al. 2010. “Patterns of Indian ocean sea-level change in a warming climate.” Nat. Geosci. 3 (8): 546–550. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo901.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013. “Inter-Governmental panel for climate change.” In Fifth assessment report, AR5. climate change, edited by J. A. Church, et al. 1191–1199. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
Jana, A., A. Biswas, S. Maiti, and A. K. Bhattacharya. 2014. “Shoreline changes in response to sea level rise along Digha coast, eastern India: An analytical approach of remote sensing, GIS and statistical techniques.” J. Coastal Conserv. 18 (3): 145–155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-013-0297-5.
Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, and A. Grinsted. 2012. “Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios.” Glob. Planet. Change 80–81: 14–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.006.
Kamphuis, J. W. 2002. Introduction to coastal engineering and management. Singapore: World Scientific.
Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, Z. Zhang, T. Larow, D. Bachiochi, E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran. 2000. “Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate.” J. Clim. 13 (23): 4196–4216. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013!4196:MEFFWAO2.0.CO;2.
Kundu, S., A. Mondal, D. Khare, P. K. Mishra, and R. Shukla. 2014. “Shifting shoreline of Sagar Island Delta, India.” J. Maps 10 (4): 612–619. https://doi.org/10.1080/17445647.2014.922131.
Le Cozannet, G., M. Garcin, M. Yates, D. Idier, and B. Meyyssignac. 2014. “Approaches to evaluate the recent impacts of sea-level rise on shoreline changes.” Earth Sci. Rev.138: 47–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.08.005.
MacDonald, N. J., and B. A. O’Connor. 1996. “Changes in wave impact on the Flemish coast due to increased mean sea level.” J. Mar. Syst. 7 (2–4): 133–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/0924-7963(95)00032-1.
Ministry of Shipping. 2019. Sagarmala project. Ministry of Shipping, Government of India. New Delhi, India. Accessed September 26, 2018. http://sagarmala.gov.in/project/coastal-community-development.
Mori, N., T. Shimura, T. Yasuda, and H. Mase. 2013. “Multi-model climate projections of ocean surface variables under different climate scenarios—Future change of waves, sea level and wind.” Ocean Eng. 71: 122–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.02.016.
Nandy, S., and S. Bandyopadhyay. 2011. “Trends of sea level change in the Hugli Estuary, India.” Indian J. Geo Mar. Sci. 40 (6): 802–812.
Naren, N., and R. Maity. 2017. “Hydroclimatic modelling of local sea level rise and its projection in future.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 130: 761–774. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1897-4.
Nicholls, R. J., W. A. Birkemeier, and R. J. Hallermeier. 1996. “Application of the depth of closure concept.” In Proc. 25th Coastal Engineering Conf., 3874–3887. Orlando, FL: Coastal Engineering Proceedings.
Patil, R. 2019. “Climate change impact on ocean parameters around the Indian coastline.” Master’s dissertation, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay.
PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level). 2019. “Tide Gauge Data.”. Accessed January 21, 2019. http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/.
Rajasree, B. R., and M. C. Deo. 2018. “Evaluation of estuary shoreline shift in response to climate change: A study from the Central West coast of India.” Land Degrad. Dev. 29 (10): 3571–3583. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3074.
Rajasree, B. R., and M. C. Deo. 2020. “Assessment of coastal vulnerability considering the future climate: A case study along the central west coast of india.” J. Waterw. Port Coastal Ocean Eng. 146 (2): 05019005. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000552.
Ramachandran, A., A. S. Khan, K. Palanivelu, R. Prasannavenkatesh, and N. Jayanthi. 2017. “Projection of climate change-induced sea-level rise for the coasts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, India using SimCLIM: A first step towards planning adaptation policie.” J. Coastal Conserv. 21 (6): 731–742. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-017-0532-6.
Ranasinghe, R., D. Callaghan, and M. J. F. Stive. 2012. “Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: Beyond the Bruun rule.” Clim. Change 110 (3–4): 561–574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0107-8.
Ritphring, S., C. Somphong, K. Udo, and S. Kazama. 2018. “Projection of future beach loss due to sea level rise for sandy beaches along Thailand’s coastlines.” J. Coastal Res. 85: 541–545. https://doi.org/10.2112/SI85-109.1.
Sanil Kumar, V., K. C. Pathak, P. Pednekar, N. S. N. Raju, and R. Gowthaman. 2006. “Coastal processes along the Indian coastline.” Curr. Sci. 91 (4): 530–536.
Schwartz, M. L. 1967. “The Bruun theory of sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion.” J. Geol. 75 (1): 76–92. https://doi.org/10.1086/627232.
SCOR (Scientific Committee on Ocean Research) Working Group-89. 1991. “The response of beaches to sea level changes: A review of predictor models.” J. Coastal Res. 7 (3): 895–921.
Shankar, D., and S. R. Shetye. 1999. “Are interdecadal sea level changes along the Indian coast influenced by variability of monsoon rainfall?” J. Geophys. Res 104 (C11): 26031–26042. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JC900218.
Shankar, D., and S. R. Shetye. 2001. “Why is mean sea level along the Indian coast higher in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea?” Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 (4): 563–565. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012001.
Sierra, J. P., A. Genius, P. Lionello, M. Mestres, C. Mosso, and L. Marzo. 2017. “Modelling the impact of climate change on harbour operability: The Barcelona port case study.” Ocean Eng. 141: 64–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.06.002.
SNC (Second National Communication). 2012. Effects and impacts of climate change for India. New Delhi: Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India.
Stive, M. J. F., and H. J. de Vriend. 1995. “Modelling shoreface profile evolution.” Mar. Geol. 126 (1–4): 235–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-3227(95)00080-I.
Udo, K., and Y. Takeda. 2017. “Projections of future beach loss in Japan due to sea-level rise and uncertainties in projected beach loss.” Coastal Eng. J. 59 (2): 1740006. https://doi.org/10.1142/S057856341740006X.
Unnikrishnan, A. S., A. G. Nidheesh, and M. L. Lenagaigne. 2015. “Sea level rise trends off the Indian coasts during the last two decades.” Curr. Sci. 108 (5): 966–971.
Unnikrishnan, A. S., K. Rupa Kumar, S. E. Fernandes, G. S. Michael, and S. K. Patwardhan. 2006. “Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observations and projections.” Curr. Sci. 90 (3): 362–368
Warrick, R., W. Ye, Y. Li, M. Dooley, P. Kouwenhoven, and P. Urich. 2013. SimCLIM 2013: A software system for modelling the impacts of climate variability and change. Hamilton, New Zealand: CLIMsystems.
Zhang, K., B. C. Douglas, and S. P. Leatherman. 2004. “Global warming and coastal erosion.” Clim. Change 64 (1/2): 41–48. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024690.32682.48.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 30, 2019
Accepted: Feb 11, 2020
Published online: Jun 10, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Nov 10, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.