New Statistical Approach to Select Coastal Flood-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 145, Issue 3
Abstract
Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are major storm, flood-producing events along the northwest European coastline. To evaluate the storm surge risk covering a return period over as many as 10,000 years (0.01% annual exceedance probability) in this region, a stochastic catalog was developed by perturbing historical European ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surges generated with an entire 10,000-year stochastic catalog; however, is computationally expensive. Also, not all the stochastic ETC events are flood-producing storms. We propose an efficient statistical approach to filter the stochastic catalog by estimating the storm-surge elevation and total water level at tide gauges and then selecting only the nonnegligible flood-producing coastal events. The proposed approach reduces the number of stochastic storms that need to be numerically simulated by 78%, thereby saving computational resources for high-resolution numerical simulations of flood-producing storms.
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Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 145 • Issue 3 • May 2019
Copyright
© 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 8, 2018
Accepted: Sep 13, 2018
Published online: Jan 30, 2019
Published in print: May 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jun 30, 2019
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