Mixed Models of Single-Berth Interarrival Time Distributions
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 144, Issue 1
Abstract
Modeling and analysis of the statistical patterns of vessel interarrival time is a crucial research area for port planning and is also the basis of port capacity analysis and simulation-related works using theoretical queuing methods. This study seeks to identify probabilistic models of vessel interarrival time for a single berth. Two generalized queuing models (GQMs), gamma-GQM and lognormal-GQM, were proposed and tested by a novel hybrid parameter estimation method. To test the proposed models, detailed records of vessels entering Tianjin Port between 2012 and 2014 were utilized; nine berths consisting of three types—bulk cargo, container, and crude carrier—were chosen and studied. The results of the study show that (1) single models are unsatisfactory for single-berth interarrival time modeling in most cases, whereas the proposed mixed models provide much better overall goodness of fit; (2) the statistical properties and the proportion of congested interarrival time are highly related to traffic intensity; (3) the lognormal distribution model performed the best of all tested single models, and the lognormal-GQM performed the best of all tested models.
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Acknowledgments
The study described in this article was partially supported by grants from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Projects 2016IVA062 and 2016IVA063), the Science and Technology Department of Hubei Province (Projects 2015BHE004 and 2016CFB270), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Project 51479156).
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Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 144 • Issue 1 • January 2018
Copyright
© 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 2, 2016
Accepted: Jun 12, 2017
Published online: Sep 29, 2017
Published in print: Jan 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Mar 1, 2018
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