Collapse Limit State Fragilities of Wood-Framed Residences from Storm Surge and Waves during Hurricane Ike
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 140, Issue 1
Abstract
Posthurricane Ike surveys for almost 2,000 individual wood-framed houses were combined with high resolution numerical hindcasts to investigate the collapse limit state arising from overland waves and surge. For this storm, freeboard above wave crests, wave height, current velocity, and construction date were found to be the most important factors determining survival. Regressions show considerable skill in predicting collapse fragilities and will prove useful in assessing vulnerability. The relatively small range of wind speeds available in the data set did not allow accurate assessments of wind effects on collapse. Several ASCE and FEMA force estimates showed relatively low skill in modeling fragility, in large part because their breaking wave assumption was not accurate over much of the range. However, the use of best-estimate wave heights in force modeling greatly improved accuracy of fragility estimates. Despite the positive results of this study, numerous questions remain. It proved impossible to separate the effects of house age and construction methods. Although computed overland wave heights showed good correlation with fragility, comparison with the limited measured data available showed that wave heights were significantly overpredicted inland. Finally, more accurate standards for integrated and local loads on elevated houses will be necessary to perform detailed structural system-based analyses of fragility.
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Acknowledgments
The authors of this paper thank those who made this research possible and assisted with data extraction and analysis for the Bolivar Peninsula including Michael Hartman, who provided SWAN + ADCIRC results at the study locations. Funding for this work was provided by the National Science Foundation under grant 0902264, the State of North Carolina, and the University of Notre Dame.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 140 • Issue 1 • January 2014
Pages: 43 - 55
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 11, 2012
Accepted: May 20, 2013
Published online: May 22, 2013
Published in print: Jan 1, 2014
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