Sea-Level Rise Impact on a Salt Marsh System of the Lower St. Johns River
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 2
Abstract
The impact of sea-level rise on salt marsh sustainability is examined for the lower St. Johns River and associated salt marsh (Spartina alterniflora) system. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, forced by tides and sea-level rise, is coupled with a zero-dimensional marsh model to estimate the level of biomass productivity of S. alterniflora across the salt marsh landscape for present day and anticipated future conditions (i.e., when subjected to sea-level rise). The hydrodynamic model results show mean low water (MLW) to be highly spatially variable with a SD of ± 0.18 m and mean high water (MHW) to be less spatially variable with a SD ± 0.03 m. The spatial variability of MLW and MHW is particularly evident within the tidal creeks of the salt marsh. MLW and MHW are sensitive to sea-level rise and respond in a nonlinear fashion (i.e., MLW and MHW elevate by an amount that is not proportional to the level of sea-level rise). The coupled hydrodynamic-marsh model results illustrate the spatial heterogeneity of biomass productivity and indicate marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise. The model is then used to demonstrate an application of engineered accretion that can help sustain a marsh that is exposed to sea-level rise.
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Acknowledgments
This research was funded in part under Award No. NA10NOS4780146 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (CSCOR). The writers thank Peter V. Sucsy of the St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) for providing a wealth of information on the lower St. Johns River. The statements and conclusions are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA-CSCOR, SJRWMD, OWI, or their affiliates.
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Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 139 • Issue 2 • March 2013
Pages: 118 - 125
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 22, 2011
Accepted: Jun 20, 2012
Published online: Jul 28, 2012
Published in print: Mar 1, 2013
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