Global Sea Level Projections to 2100 Using Methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 2
Abstract
Forecasts of sea-level rise by 2100 have such a wide range that objective planning is difficult. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast a sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 between 0.18 and 0.59 m, but they did not completely consider contributions from Greenland and Antarctica in determining the upper limit. Recent projections by others have been larger, typically 1–2 m, with Greenland and Antarctica being the greatest contributors. However, these projections are usually maximum possible rises without probabilities of occurrence, whereas the maximum IPCC projection is at the 95% confidence level with a 2.5% probability of being equaled or exceeded. Project planning and design generally require projections with associated probabilities to determine risk. This paper shows what worldwide tide gauge data tell us about sea-level rise trends and accelerations in the twentieth century, and satellite altimeter recordings tell us about the rise since the early 1990s. Using IPCC methodology, sea level projections with associated probabilities are made from 1990 to 2100. Projections of Greenland and Antarctica contributions are estimated based on satellite measurements of current ice-mass-loss trends and accelerations, and then they are added to contributions from thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice caps based on the latest information. Sea-level rise projections from 1990 to 2100 are 0.18, 0.48, and 0.82 m at 5, 50, and 95% confidence levels, respectively.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
I very much appreciate the review provided by Robert G. Dean and his stimulation of my interest in sea-level rise, collaboration on earlier papers, and current collaboration.
References
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. (2011). “Snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate change and the cryosphere.” 〈http://amap.no/documents/index.cfm?action=getfile&dirsub=%2FSnow%2C%20Water%2C%20Ice%20and%20Permafrost%20in%20the%20Arctic%20(SWIPA)&filename=SWIPA2011_Sci_FM.pdf〉 (Jan. 2, 2013).
Bahr, D. B., Dyurgerov, M., and Meier, M. F. (2009). “Sea level rise from glaciers and ice caps: A lower bound.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03501.
Bamber, J. L., Riva, R. E. M., Vermeersen, B. L. A., and LeBrooq, A. M. (2009). “Reassessment of the potential sea-level rise from a collapse of the West Antarctic ice.” Science, 324(5929), 901–903.
Bevis, M., et al. (2009). “Geodetic measurements of vertical crustal velocity in West Antarctica and the implications for ice mass balance.” Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 10, Q10005.
Bindoff, N. L., et al. (2007). “Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level.” Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 385–432.
Bouin, M. N., and Wöppelmann, G. (2010). “Land motion estimates from GPS at tide gauges: A geophysical evaluation.” Geophys. J. Int., 180(1), 193–209.
Church, J. A., and White, N. J. (2006). “20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01602.
Church, J. A., and White, N. J. (2011). “Sea-level rise from the late 19th century to the early 21st century.” Surv. Geophys., 32, 585–602.
CU Sea Level Research Group. (2012). “Sea level change.” 〈http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_ib_ns_global.pdf〉 (Feb. 22, 2012).
Dean, R. G., and Houston, J. R. (2012). “Comparison of comprehensive tide gauge and satellite data sets.” National Conf. on Beach Preservation Technology, Florida Shore and Beach Association, Tallahassee, FL.
Domingues, C.M., et al. (2008). “Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise.” Nature, 453, 1090–1094.
Douglas, B. C. (1992). “Global sea level acceleration.” J. Geophys. Res., 97(C8), 12699–12706.
Douglas, B. C. (2001). “Sea level change in the era of the recording tide gauge.” Sea level rise: History and consequences, B. C. Douglas, M. S. Kearney, and S. P. Leatherman, eds., Vol. 3, Academic Press, San Diego, 65–93.
Gornitz, V. (2007). “Sea level rise, after the ice melted and today.” Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 〈http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_09/〉 (Jan. 2, 2013).
Graversen, R. G., et al. (2010). “Greenland’s contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century.” Clim. Dyn., 37, 1427–1442.
Greve, R., Saito, F., and Abe-ouchi, A. (2011). “Initial results of the SeaRISE numerical experiments with the models SICOPOLIS and IcIES for the Greenland ice sheet.” Ann. Glaciol., 52(58), 23–30.
Holgate, S. J. (2007). “On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01602,.
Holgate, S. J., and Woodworth, P. L. (2004). “Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07305.
Houston, J. R., and Dean, R. G. (2011). “Sea-level acceleration based on U.S. tide gauges and extensions of previous global-gauge analyses.” J. Coast. Res., 27(3), 409–417.
Huybrechts, P., et al. (2011). “Response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multi-millennial greenhouse warming in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM.” Surv. Geophys., 32(4–5), 397–416.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2012). “Summary for policymakers.” Managing the Risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, C. B. Field et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 3–21.
Jacob, T., Wahr, J., Pfeffer, W. T., and Swenson, S. (2012). “Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise.” Nature, 482, 514–518.
Jansen, E., et al. (2007). “Palaeoclimate.” Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon et al., eds., Cambridge University, Cambridge, U.K., 434–485.
Jardine, P. (2011). “The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum.” Palaeontology, 〈http://pdf.palaeontologyonline.com/articles-2011/The_Paleocene-Eocene_Thermal_Maximum-Jardine_P-Oct2011.pdf〉 (Jan. 3, 2013).
Jevrejeva, S., Grinsted, A., Moore, J. C., and Holgate, S. (2006). “Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records.” J. Geophys. Res., 111, C09012.
Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. C., and Grinsted, A. (2010). “How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?” Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07703,.
Katsman, C. A., et al. (2011). “Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—The Netherlands as an example.” Climatic change, 〈http://www.princeton.edu/step/people/faculty/michael-oppenheimer/research/Katsman-et-al-CC-2011.online.pdf〉 (Jan. 3, 2013).
Leclercq, P. W., Oerlemans, J., and Cogley, J. G. (2011). “Estimating the glacier contribution to sea-level rise for the period 1800–2005.” Surv. Geophys., 32(4–5), 519–535.
Lisiecki, L. E., and Raymo, M. E. (2005). “Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic d18O records.” Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003.
Meier, M. F., et al. (2007). “Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century.” Science, 317(5841), 1064–1066.
Mernild, S. H., Liston, G. E., Hiemstra, C. A., and Christensen, J. H. (2010). “Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-yr perspective, 1950–2080.” J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 3–25.
Merrifield, M. A., Merrifield, S. T., and Mitchum, G. T. (2009). “An anomalous recent acceleration of global sea level rise.” J. Clim., 22(21), 5772–5781.
National Snow and Ice Data Center. (2009). “World glacier inventory.” World Glacier Monitoring Service and National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, 〈http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g01130_glacier_inventory/〉 (Jan. 3, 2013).
Nerem, R. S., Chambers, D. P., Choe, C., and Mitchum, G. T. (2010). “Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions.” Mar. Geod., 33(1), 435–446.
Nicholls, R. J., et al. (2011). “Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4° C world’ in the twenty-first century.” Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., 369(1934), 161–181.
Peltier, W. R. (2001). “Global glacial isostatic adjustment and modern instrumental records of relative sea level history.” Sea level rise history and consequences, B. C. Douglas, M. S. Kearney, and S. P. Leatherman, eds., Vol. 4, Academic Press, San Diego, 65–93.
Pfeffer, W. T., Harper, J. T., and O'Neel, S. (2008). “Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise.” Science, 321(5894), 1340–1343.
Prandi, P., Cazenave, A., and Becker, M. (2009). “Is coastal mean sea level rising faster than the global mean? A comparison between tide gauges and satellite altimetry over 1993–2007.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05602.
Price, S. F., Payne, A. J., Howat, I. M., and Smith, B. E. (2011). “Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108(22), 8978–8983.
Radic, V., and Hock, R. (2011). “Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise.” Nat. Geosci., 4(2), 91–94.
Ray, R. D., and Douglas, B. C. (2011). “Experiments in reconstructing twentieth-century sea levels.” Prog. Oceanogr., 91(4), 496–515.
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A., and Lenaerts, J. T. M. (2011). “Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503.
Slangen, A. B. A., Katsman, C. A., van de Wal, R. S. W., Vermeersen, L. L. A., and Riva, R. E. M. (2011). “Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios.” Climate Dynamics, 38(5–6), 1191-1209.
Velicogna, I. (2009). “Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503.
Watson, P. J. (2011). “Is there evidence yet of acceleration in mean sea level rise around mainland Australia.” J. Coast. Res., 27(2), 368–377.
Watson, C., White, N. J., Coleman, R., and Church, J. A. (2004). “TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1: Absolute calibration in Bass Strait, Australia.” Mar. Geod., 27(1–2), 107–131.
Woodworth, P. L. (1990). “A search for accelerations in records of European mean sea level.” Int. J. Climatol., 10(2), 129–143.
Wu, X., et al. (2010). “Simultaneous estimation of global present-day water transport and glacial isostatic adjustment.” Nat. Geosci., 3(9), 642–646.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 139 • Issue 2 • March 2013
Pages: 82 - 87
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 17, 2011
Accepted: Apr 20, 2012
Published online: Apr 23, 2012
Published in print: Mar 1, 2013
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.