Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels in a Tide-Dominated Environment Using Short Data Records
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 137, Issue 3
Abstract
A new method for estimating extreme sea levels from short sea-level records in a tide-dominated environment is presented. A short sea-level record is first decomposed into its constituent components such as tide, mean level of the sea, and storm surge. Monte Carlo simulations are then incorporated into an empirical simulation technique to randomly recombine the components to produce an annual series of sea levels at high tide from which the annual maximum is selected. The yearly simulation is repeated many thousands of times to yield robust statistics on extreme values. Comparison of the method with the traditional extreme-value analysis of annual maximum sea levels for a 33-year record shows that the methods give similar results. The method is likely to be most useful for estimation of extreme sea levels at locations where the available sea-level record is short () and where the various sea-level components can be assumed to be largely independent.
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Acknowledgments
The project was funded by NIWA through the Capability Fund. Mulgor Consulting Ltd funded the lead writer for part of his time. Thanks to Murthy Mittinty and Graham McBride of NIWA for discussions on extreme-value theory and associated errors, and to NIWA’s Rotorua Branch team for their dedication and persistence in monitoring sea level at Moturiki over three decades. Three reviewers provided valuable comments and suggestions that have improved the paper.
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Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 137 • Issue 3 • May 2011
Pages: 150 - 159
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 15, 2008
Accepted: Sep 16, 2010
Published online: Sep 18, 2010
Published in print: May 1, 2011
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