Integrating Climate Change, Hydrology, and Water Footprint to Measure Water Scarcity in Lesotho, Africa
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 148, Issue 1
Abstract
This research integrated bias-corrected results from regional climate models, a watershed hydrology model, and water footprint analysis to measure the impact of climate change on future water scarcity in Lesotho, a water-rich yet data-poor country. Simulations from three climate models with two different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5 and 8.5, were bias corrected. Streamflows were simulated using the Soil Water Assessment Tool in the Senqu basin, which covers approximately two-thirds of Lesotho. This provided the future blue water availability of this river until 2100. Three scenarios were adopted to analyze the water scarcity of Lesotho. Scenario 1 used the national blue water footprint in the water scarcity calculation to investigate the worst-case scenario. Scenario 2 used the modified blue water footprint based on the population living within the Senqu River basin. Scenario 3 used a modified blue water footprint that accounted for the projected population growth of Lesotho. The results of Scenario 1 indicated 4 years of moderate water scarcity, and the results of Scenario 3 indicated 2 years of severe water scarcity. The modeling framework from this study can be applied to other remote places where limited data are available.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. These items include output of bias-corrected parameters used in the SWAT model, and streamflow data used in the SWAT analysis.
Acknowledgments
This work was carried out while John W. Pryor was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Lesotho and a Master of Science student at the University of South Florida. The authors thank Professor Jim Mihelcic for creating Engineering for Developing Communities which facilitated this opportunity and for comments on previous versions of this manuscript. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0965743. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 148 • Issue 1 • January 2022
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Received: Aug 6, 2020
Accepted: Sep 29, 2021
Published online: Nov 9, 2021
Published in print: Jan 1, 2022
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