Storm Intensification: Implications for Environmental Design in Maryland
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147, Issue 10
Abstract
Extreme precipitation is predicted to increase over the 21st century. Stormwater infrastructure designs based on historic climate experience will have reduced margins of safety and could fail to provide intended levels of services. Climate-adjusted rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves were estimated at locations throughout Maryland for multiple climate models and land cover assumptions and linked to rainfall-runoff models with green and gray stormwater control measures (SCMs). These data are used to evaluate three classes of responses: highway flooding, stream stability, and performance of SCMs. Results suggest greater changes for larger, low recurrence events. Current guidance for road culverts may be inadequate to prevent flooding over their expected design life. Impacts on stream stability and water quality SCMs may be less severe due to smaller anticipated changes in high recurrence events; however, the large variability and incomplete knowledge of uncertainty bounds on future storm event magnitudes create challenges for planning. Given uncertainty in prediction of future precipitation it will be important to choose resilient management strategies that can be adapted as climate evolves.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Available items include Python code for generating the future IDF curves and 90th percentile event analyses, databases of resulting IDF curves, and workbooks summarizing all analyses reported in the paper. Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available in a repository online in accordance with funder data retention policies (Butcher 2021).
Acknowledgments
Funding for this work was provided by the Chesapeake Bay Trust Restoration Research Program under Request #16928. I thank Sadie Drescher (Chesapeake Bay Trust), Ari Engelberg (Maryland Dept. of Natural Resources), and Nancy Roth (Tetra Tech) for providing review and comments. Scott Job of Tetra Tech refined and executed much of the Python programming. Dr. Tan Zi of the San Francisco Estuary Institute implemented the original Python code for the 90th-percentile event analysis described in the Appendix. I acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP5, and thank these modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP5, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147 • Issue 10 • October 2021
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Dec 3, 2020
Accepted: May 9, 2021
Published online: Aug 16, 2021
Published in print: Oct 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Jan 16, 2022
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