Integration and Evaluation of Forecast-Informed Multiobjective Reservoir Operations
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146, Issue 6
Abstract
Incorporating streamflow forecasts into reservoir operations can improve water resources management efficiency, yet the forecast value in multipurpose reservoir systems is rarely investigated, let alone the relationship between forecast accuracy and value in multiobjective reservoir operation. Here, we propose a forecast-informed framework to derive multiobjective operating rules based on radial basis functions and the Pareto archived dynamically dimensioned search optimization algorithm and subsequently develop indicators reflective of Pareto fronts with and without forecast information to characterize forecast value. Based on a case study of the Hanjiang cascade of reservoirs in the Yangtze River Basin, China, the optimal inclusion of streamflow forecasts notably improves the performance of multiobjective reservoir operations, mainly by significantly increasing the hydropower generation. The relationship between forecast accuracy and value is explored by comparing four accuracy indicators (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, mutual information, correlation coefficient, and Kullback–Leibler distance) and forecast value. The correlation coefficient is found to be the most suitable forecast indicator given its high correlation with forecast value and stability in the regression. For multiobjective forecast-informed reservoir systems, it is critical to understand and define the relationship between forecast accuracy and forecast value; if improvements in accuracy lead to steep gains in value, investing in further forecast model development may be warranted.
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Data Availability Statement
The data used in this paper can be requested by contacting the corresponding author.
Acknowledgments
This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51539009 and 51879192).
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146 • Issue 6 • June 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Nov 28, 2018
Accepted: Jan 13, 2020
Published online: Mar 30, 2020
Published in print: Jun 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Aug 30, 2020
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