Low-Flow Trends at Southeast United States Streamflow Gauges
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146, Issue 6
Abstract
Water management and infrastructure design depend on quantifying thresholds in minimum flows. Decreasing trends in low flows have been observed at many stream gauges in the Southeast US; however, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of regional trends and shifts in flow minima is lacking. This study examines trends and abrupt shifts in the annual minimum 7-day mean streamflow in the Southeastern US for four distinct time periods over the last century. A type II error analysis is conducted to evaluate the probability of erroneously declaring that a trend does not exist. A decreasing trend in low-flow magnitude is identified in 80% of the streamflow records. An abrupt shift in low-flow magnitude was identified in 50% of the gauge records, occurring predominantly around 1975–1985 and 1995–2005. Trend slopes indicate an accelerated rate of decline in low-flow magnitude over recent decades compared to the last 50–75 years. Where statistically significant trends are not identified, short record lengths () and high variability in flow records result in a high probability of a type II error.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by reasonable request (streamflow gauge records and classification, statistical results, and R code).
Acknowledgments
The authors are thankful for contributions in data assimilation from Dr. Wei Cui, Grant McKown, Emilia Suarez, and Will Mattison. This study was supported by the Southern Company. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Southern Company. Additional support for this work was provided by the NSF Sustainability Research Network Cooperative Agreement 1444758, Urban Water Innovation Network. The comments of three anonymous reviewers, which greatly improved this manuscript, are appreciated.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146 • Issue 6 • June 2020
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©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: May 4, 2019
Accepted: Dec 18, 2019
Published online: Mar 26, 2020
Published in print: Jun 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Aug 26, 2020
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