Optimal Hedging for Hydropower Operation and End-of-Year Carryover Storage Values
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 4
Abstract
Hedging rules for hydropower operation provide optimal decisions to hedge against extreme system loss from an energy shortfall in the future at the price of a small current loss. Aiming at determining optimal end-of-year carryover storage decisions, this paper develops a hedging model for hydropower operation and proposes a corresponding numerical solving procedure to derive optimal hedging rules. The overall solving procedure involves generating possible future inflow sequences, optimizing the hedging model with nonlinear programming (NLP) technique, and plotting the hedging rule with the optimal results in condition–decision forms. Results from a case study demonstrate the correctness and feasibility of the proposed model and procedure. Performance comparison between the generated hedging rule and standard operating policy (SOP) reveals that (1) in a dry period, hedging rules could provide optimal end-of-year carryover storage, which helps achieve more benefit and suffer less system loss compared with SOP; (2) forecast uncertainty greatly affects the operation for it reduces the benefit and increases the system loss; and (3) when water is abundant, hedging becomes trivial and the generated operating rules provide similar benefit and system loss compared with SOP. The proposed procedure and the implications could be applied to determine more rational end-of-year carryover storage decisions for hydropower operation considering inflow uncertainty.
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Acknowledgments
The research performed and presented in this paper was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (91547201, 51679027, and 51579029). We thank the editor, the associate editor and three anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145 • Issue 4 • April 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 29, 2018
Accepted: Sep 12, 2018
Published online: Jan 29, 2019
Published in print: Apr 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jun 29, 2019
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