Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Drinking Water Source Selection in Southwestern Bangladesh
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 4
Abstract
Decision analysis methods provide opportunities to explore alternatives for drinking water resources in impoverished, rural regions of developing countries. With varying success, southwestern Bangladesh communities currently use multiple drinking water sources, including rainwater harvesting, ponds, pond sand filters, managed aquifer recharge (MAR), and tubewells. This study uses a variety of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to assess the probable success of these drinking water sources based on various technical, economic, social, and environmental factors. Data include an assortment of physical and social sources including focus group interviews, surveys, and water quality measurements. Additionally, the MCDA methods (multiple attribute value theory, analytic hierarchy process, ELECTRE I, and ELECTRE III) are informed by preferences from three stakeholders—locals, nongovernmental organizations, and environmental science academics—to ensure proper weighting of criteria for success. Across all MCDA methods, we find that rainwater harvesting is the most likely to succeed as a reliable drinking water source in the region. Conversely, MAR is the least preferred alternative. Sensitivity analyses suggest a robust ranking order that is relatively insensitive to model parameters, including water source performance score and stakeholder weighting, across all criteria categories. This case study demonstrates how decision modeling and alternative assessment can be the first step to reach sustainable solutions in complex water management problems.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the Office of Naval Research Grant No. N00014-11-1-0683. This material is also based on work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship under Grant No. 1445197. We would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their careful reading of our manuscript and their many insightful comments and suggestions. Data and R code used in this study are available at https://github.com/chelspeters7/BanglaMCDA.
References
Abedin, M. A., U. Habiba, and R. Shaw. 2014. “Community perception and adaptation to safe drinking water scarcity: Salinity, arsenic, and drought risks in coastal Bangladesh.” Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 5 (2): 110–124. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-014-0021-6.
Acacia Water. 2011. Action research: Creating fresh water bubbles in brackish aquifer. Gouda, Netherlands: Acacia Water.
Ahmed, W., T. Gardner, and S. Toze. 2011. “Microbiological quality of roof-harvested rainwater and health risks: A review.” J. Environ. Qual. 40 (1): 9–13. https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2010.0345.
Alam, M., M. Sultana, G. B. Nair, R. B. Sack, D. A. Sack, A. K. Siddique, A. Ali, A. Huq, and R. R. Colwell. 2006. “Toxigenic vibrio cholerae in the aquatic environment of Mathbaria, Bangladesh.” Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 72 (4): 2849–2855. https://doi.org/10.1128/AEM.72.4.2849-2855.2006.
Alam, R., G. Munna, M. A. I. Chowdhury, M. S. K. A. Sarkar, M. Ahmed, M. T. Rahman, F. Jesmin, and M. A. Toimoor. 2012. “Feasibility study of rainwater harvesting system in Sylhet city.” Environ. Monit. Assess. 184 (1): 573–580. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-011-1989-7.
Albas, I., H. Hagedooren, V. Knook, and H. Pot. 2014. A field study on the social aspects of the MAR system. Delft, Netherlands: Delft Univ. of Technology.
Angelis, A., and P. Kanavos. 2017. “Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for evaluating new medicines in health technology assessment and beyond: The advance value framework.” Soc. Sci. Med. 188: 137–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.06.024.
Ansari, M. S., H. M. N. Islam, and K. Roy. 2010. Functionality and social acceptance of safe water technology-pond sand filter and rainwater harvesting system in south-west coastal region of Bangladesh. Saarbrucken, Germany: VDM.
Arku, F., S. Omari, B. Adu-Okoree, and A. Abduramane. 2015. “Harvested rainwater: Quality, adequacy, and proximity in Ghanaian rural communities.” Dev. Pract. 25 (8): 1160–1169. https://doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2015.1081676.
Auerbach, L. W., S. L. Goodbred Jr., D. R. Mondal, C. A. Wilson, K. R. Ahmed, K. Roy, M. S. Steckler, C. Small, J. M. Gilligan, and B. A. Ackerly. 2015. “Flood risk of natural and embanked landscapes on the Ganges-Brahmaputra tidal delta plain.” Nat. Clim. Change 5 (2): 153–157. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2472.
Ayers, J. C., S. Goodbred, G. George, D. Fry, L. Benneyworth, G. Hornberger, K. Roy, M. R. Karim, and F. Akter. 2016. “Sources of salinity and arsenic in groundwater in southwest Bangladesh.” Geochem. Trans. 17 (1): 4.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2012. Census population and housing census 2011: Socio-economic and demographic report, national series. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Vol. 2 of Census population and housing census 2011: National report, union statistics. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2015. Census population and housing census 2011: Community report: Zila: Khulna. Khulna, Bangladesh: Bangldesh Bureau of Statistics.
Banville, C., M. Landry, J. M. Martel, and C. Boulaire. 1998. “A stakeholder approach to MCDA.” Syst. Res. Behav. Sci. 15 (1): 15–32. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1743(199801/02)15:1%3C15::AID-SRES179%3E3.0.CO;2-B.
Belton, V., and T. J. T. Stewart. 2002. Multiple criteria decision analysis. Boston: Springer.
Benayoun, R., B. Roy, and B. Sussman. 1966. ELECTRE: Une méthode pour guider le choix en présence de points de vue multiples. Paris: Direction Scientifique.
Benneyworth, L., et al. 2016. “Drinking water insecurity: Water quality and access in coastal south-western Bangladesh.” Int. J. Environ. Health Res. 26 (5–6): 508–524. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603123.2016.1194383.
Blanchet, T. 2014. Up-scaling MAR for providing community water supplies in saline areas: Anthropological study report. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Drishti Research Center.
Bouwer, H. 2002. “Artificial recharge of groundwater: Hydrogeology and engineering.” Hydrogeol. J. 10 (1): 121–142. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-001-0182-4.
Burgess, W. G., M. A. Hoque, H. A. Michael, C. I. Voss, G. N. Breit, and K. M. Ahmed. 2010. “Vulnerability of deep groundwater in the Bengal aquifer system to contamination by arsenic.” Nat. Geosci. 3 (2): 83–87. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo750.
Cai, X., L. Lasdon, and A. M. Michelsen. 2004. “Group decision making in water resources planning using multiple objective analysis.” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 130 (1): 4–14. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:1(4).
Calizaya, A., O. Meixner, L. Bengtsson, and R. Berndtsson. 2010. “Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for integrated water resources management (IWRM) in the Lake Poopo basin, Bolivia.” Water Resour. Manage. 24 (10): 2267–2289. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9551-x.
Chowdhury, N. T. 2010. “Water management in Bangladesh: An analytical review.” Water Policy 12 (1): 32–51. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2009.112.
Chowdhury, R. K., and R. Rahman. 2008. “Multicriteria decision analysis in water resources management: The Malnichara channel improvement.” Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 5 (2): 195–204. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03326013.
Cinelli, M., S. R. Coles, and K. Kirwan. 2014. “Analysis of the potentials of multi criteria decision analysis methods to conduct sustainability assessment.” Ecol. Indic. 46: 138–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.06.011.
Domènech, L., H. Heijnen, and D. Saurí. 2012. “Rainwater harvesting for human consumption and livelihood improvement in rural Nepal: Benefits and risks.” Water Environ. J. 26 (4): 465–472. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00305.x.
ECOSOC (United Nations Economic and Social Council). 2016. “Progress towards the sustainable development goals.” Accessed January 1, 2017. https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/.
Figueira, J., S. Greco, B. Roy, and R. Slowinski. 2013. “An overview of ELECTRE methods and their recent extensions.” J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Anal. 20 (1–2): 61–85. https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.1482.
Ganji, A., H. R. Maier, and G. C. Dandy. 2016. “A modified Sobol’ sensitivity analysis method for decision-making in environmental problems.” Environ. Model. Software 75: 15–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.001.
Hajkowicz, S., and K. Collins. 2007. “A review of multiple criteria analysis for water resource planning and management.” Water Resour. Manage. 21 (9): 1553–1566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9112-5.
Holländer, H. M., R. Mull, and S. N. Panda. 2009. “A concept for managed aquifer recharge using ASR: Wells for sustainable use of groundwater resources in an alluvial coastal aquifer in eastern India.” Phys. Chem. Earth Parts 34 (4–5): 270–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2008.05.001.
Hoque, M. A., P. F. D. Scheelbeek, P. Vineis, A. E. Khan, K. M. Ahmed, and A. P. Butler. 2016. “Drinking water vulnerability to climate change and alternatives for adaptation in coastal south and south east Asia.” Clim. Change 136 (2): 247–263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1617-1.
Hornberger, G. M., and R. C. Spear. 1981. “An approach to the preliminary analysis of environmental systems.” J. Environ. Manage. 12: 7–18.
Huq, S. 2001. “Climate change and Bangladesh.” Science 294 (5547): 1617. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.294.5547.1617.
Hussain, M. D., and A. Ziauddin. 1989. “Rainwater use in Bangladesh: A case study in Dacope Upozilla.” In Proc., Int. Conf. on Rain Water Cistern Systems. Manila, Philippines.
Hyde, K. M., H. R. Maier, and C. Colby. 2003. “Incorporating uncertainty in the PROMETHEE MCDA method.” J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Anal. 12 (4–5): 245–259. https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.361.
Hyde, K. M., H. R. Maier, and C. B. Colby. 2004. “Reliability-based approach to multicriteria decision analysis for water resources.” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 130 (6): 429–438. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:6(429).
Ishizaka, A., and P. Nemery. 2013. Multi-criteria decision analysis. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
Ishizaka, A., and S. Siraj. 2018. “Are multi-criteria decision-making tools useful? An experimental comparative study of three methods.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 264 (2): 462–471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.05.041.
Islam, M. A., A. K. Azad, M. A. Akber, M. Rahman, and I. Sadhu. 2015. “Effectiveness of solar disinfection (SODIS) in rural coastal Bangladesh.” J. Water Health 13 (4): 1113–1122. https://doi.org/10.2166/wh.2015.186.
Islam, M. A., H. Sakakibara, M. R. Karim, and M. Sekine. 2013. “Potable water scarcity: Options and issues in the coastal areas of Bangladesh.” J. Water Health 11 (3): 532–542. https://doi.org/10.2166/wh.2013.215.
Islam, M. M., M. Kabir, and F. N. F. Chou. 2007. “Feasibility study of rainwater harvesting techniques in Bangladesh.” In Rainwater and Urban Design 2007, 726–733. Sydney, Australia: Engineers Australia.
Jakariya, M. 2005. “Sustainable safe water options in Bangladesh: Experiences from the arsenic project at MATLAB (AsMat).” In Natural arsenic in groundwater: Occurrence, remediation and management, edited by J. Bundschuh, P. Bhattacharya, and D. Chandrashekharam, 319–330. London: Taylor & Francis Group.
Jha, M. K., V. M. Chowdary, Y. Kulkarni, and B. C. Mal. 2014. “Rainwater harvesting planning using geospatial techniques and multicriteria decision analysis.” Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 83: 96–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.12.003.
Jiménez Cisneros, B., T. Oki, N. W. Arnell, G. Benito, J. G. Cogley, P. Döll, T. Jiang, and S. S. Mwakalila. 2014. “Freshwater resources: Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects: Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.” Accessed July 6, 2017. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap3_FINAL.pdf.
Jongman, B., P. Ward, and J. Aerts. 2012. “Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes.” Global Environ. Change 22 (4): 823–835. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004.
Kain, J. H., and H. Söderberg. 2008. “Management of complex knowledge in planning for sustainable development: The use of multi-criteria decision aids.” Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 28 (1): 7–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2007.03.007.
Kirkwood, C. W. 1997. Stategic decision making: Multiobjective decision analysis with spreadsheets. Belmont, CA: Cengage Learning.
Marttunen, M., J. Mustajoki, M. Dufva, and T. P. Karjalainen. 2015. “How to design and realize participation of stakeholders in MCDA processes? A framework for selecting an appropriate approach.” Euro J. Decis. Process. 3 (1–2): 187–214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40070-013-0016-3.
McBean, E. A., M. A. Rajib, and M. M. Rahman. 2013. “Improved sustainability of water supply options in areas with arsenic-impacted groundwater.” Water 5 (4): 1941–1951. https://doi.org/10.3390/w5041941.
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson. 2007. “The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones.” Environ. Urban. 19 (1): 17–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247807076960.
Mehedi, H., A. K. Nag, and S. Farhana. 2010. Climate induced displacement: Case study of cyclone Aila in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. Khulna, Bangladesh: Humanitywatch.
Montis, A. D., P. D. Toro, B. Droste-franke, I. Omann, and S. Stagl. 2000. “Assessing the quality of different MCDA methods.” In Alternatives for environmental valuation, edited by M. Getzner, C. L. Splash, and S. Stagl, 99–184. London: Routledge.
Mutikanga, H. E., S. K. Sharma, and K. Vairavamoorthy. 2011. “Multi-criteria decision analysis: A strategic planning tool for water loss management.” Water Resour. Manage. 25 (14): 3947–3969. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9896-9.
Neibaur, E. E., and E. P. Anderson. 2016. “An examination of factors affecting sustainability of domestic rainwater harvesting systems in a rural, semi-arid region of Mexico.” Water Sci. Technol. Water Supply 16 (5): 1388–1397. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.066.
Nobi, N., and A. D. Gupta. 1997. “Simulation of regional flow and salinity intrusion in an integrated stream-aquifer system in coastal region: Southwest region of Bangladesh.” Groundwater 35 (5): 786–796. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.1997.tb00147.x.
Opare, S. 2012. “Rainwater harvesting: An option for sustainable rural water supply in Ghana.” GeoJournal 77 (5): 695–705. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-011-9418-6.
Rahman, M. A. T., R. K. Majumder, S. H. Rahman, and M. A. Halim. 2011. “Sources of deep groundwater salinity in the southwestern zone of Bangladesh.” Environ. Earth Sci. 63 (2): 363–373. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-010-0707-z.
Rahman, R., and M. Salehin. 2013. Disaster risk reduction: Approaches Bangladesh, edited by R. Shaw, F. Mallick, and A. Islam, 65–90. New York: Springer.
Rashid, H. E. 1977. Geography of Bangladesh. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Reed, M. S., E. D. Fraser, and A. J. Dougill. 2006. “An adaptive learning process for developing and applying sustainability indicators with local communities.” Ecol. Econ. 59 (4): 406–418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.11.008.
Rogers, M., and M. Bruen. 1998. “Choosing realistic values of indifference, preference and veto thresholds for use with environmental criteria within ELECTRE.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 107 (3): 542–551. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00175-6.
Roy, B. 1991. “The outranking foundations approach and the methods.” Theory Decis. 31 (1): 49–73. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00134132.
Roy, B., M. Present, and D. Silhol. 1986. “A programming method for determining which Paris metro stations should be renovated.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 24 (2): 318–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(86)90054-8.
Saaty, T. L. 1988. Decision making for leaders. Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L. 1992. Multicriteria decision making: The analytic hierarchy process. Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L. 2008. “Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process.” Int. J. Serv. Sci. 1 (1): 83–98.
Saltelli, A. 2002. “Sensitivity analysis for importance assessment.” Risk Anal. 22 (3): 579–590. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.00040.
Scholten, L., N. Schuwirth, P. Reichert, and J. Lienert. 2015. “Tackling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis: An application to water supply infrastructure planning.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 242 (1): 243–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.09.044.
Shahid, S. 2010. “Recent trends in the climate of Bangladesh.” Clim. Res. 42 (3): 185–193. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00889.
Shofade, O. 2011. “Considering hierarchical structure of criteria in ELECTRE decision aiding methods.” Master’s thesis, Escola Tecnica Superior d'Enginyeria, Universitat Rovira i Virgili Escola.
Shumaker, R. 2017. “Perceptions of drinking water quality in southwestern Bangladesh.” Master’s thesis, Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt Univ.
Singh, O. P., T. M. A. Khan, and M. S. Rahman. 2000. “Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the north Indian ocean.” Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 75 (1–2): 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s007030070011.
Starkl, M., N. Brunner, and T.-A. Stenström. 2013. “Why do water and sanitation systems for the poor still fail? Policy analysis in economically advanced developing countries.” Environ. Sci. Technol. 47 (12): 6102–6110. https://doi.org/10.1021/es3048416.
Stewart, T. J., and L. Scott. 1995. “A scenario-based framework for multicriteria decision analysis in water resources planning.” Water Resour. Res. 31 (11): 2835–2843. https://doi.org/10.1029/95WR01901.
Tasich, C. M. 2013. “Groundwater-surface water interactions in the tidally-dominated coastal region of the Bengal basin: A one-dimensional numerical analysis of tidal and surface water controls on local aquifer systems.” Master’s thesis, Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt Univ.
Von Winterfeldt, D., and W. Edwards. 1993. Decision analysis and behavioral research. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
WHO and UNICEF (World Health Organization and United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund). 2017. “Launch version July 12 main report progress on drinking water, sanitation and hygiene.” Accessed January 7, 2017. https://www.wssinfo.org/.
Wong, P., I. J. Losada, J. P. Gattuso, J. Hinkel, A. Khattabi, K. L. McInnes, Y. Saito, and A. Sallenger. 2014. “Coastal systems and low-lying areas: Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects: Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.” Accessed July 6, 2017. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap5_FINAL.pdf.
Worland, S. C., G. M. Hornberger, and S. L. Goodbred. 2015. “Source, transport, and evolution of saline groundwater in a shallow Holocene aquifer on the tidal delta plain of southwest Bangladesh.” Water Resour. Res. 51 (7): 5791–5805. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016262.
World Bank. 2011. The cost of adapting to extreme weather events in a changing climate. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145 • Issue 4 • April 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 22, 2017
Accepted: Aug 7, 2018
Published online: Jan 17, 2019
Published in print: Apr 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jun 17, 2019
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.