Conditional Value-at-Risk for Nonstationary Streamflow and Its Application for Derivation of the Adaptive Reservoir Flood Limited Water Level
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 144, Issue 3
Abstract
The existing risk-based approaches for quantifying expected flood damage loss may not be suitable in the changing environment when streamflow becomes nonstationary. Conditional value-at-risk (), a modified form of value-at-risk (), that takes account of both the magnitude and probability of damage loss has been widely applied to water resources issues. However, quantification of under nonstationary conditions has not been addressed in the literature. This study proposes an approach that incorporates in quantifying the flood damage loss under nonstationary conditions, and then associated with flood risk over a specified time horizon is deduced. To illustrate the concept of , this study applies into the adaptive flood limited water level (FLWL) optimization. With China’s Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) as a case study, the results indicate that (1) the not only can represent the possible flood damage loss over a time horizon in the future, but also can reflect the flood risk probability by choosing a suitable confidence level; and (2) it is reliable to take account of the value as a constraint when studying the adaptive FLWL optimization problem.
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (2016YFC0400907), the Excellent Young Scientist Foundation of NSFC (51422907), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51579180).
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 144 • Issue 3 • March 2018
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 8, 2017
Accepted: Sep 8, 2017
Published online: Jan 10, 2018
Published in print: Mar 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Jun 10, 2018
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