Combined Monthly Inflow Forecasting and Multiobjective Ecological Reservoir Operations Model: Case Study of the Three Gorges Reservoir
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 143, Issue 8
Abstract
A novel model combining monthly inflow forecasting and multiobjective ecological reservoir operations was developed to improve the efficiency of water resource allocation. To forecast monthly inflow values, an improved support vector machine (SVM) model was constructed using meteorological and hydrological data as inputs. To improve forecasting accuracy, this improved model, along with a basic SVM, was coupled to two data preprocessing methods: empirical mode decomposition and singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Comparisons between all the models revealed that the improved SSA-SVM model had superior predictive accuracy. China’s Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was taken as a case study for combining the improved SSA-SVM forecasting model with an operation model. A multiobjective ecological reservoir operation model was created for the TGR and optimized using the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II. The simulation results indicate that the proposed coupled model for the TGR would outperform actual TGR operation; multiobjective ecological operations using inflow forecasting could alleviate water shortages. The societal, economic, and ecological implications of different TGR operation modes are discussed.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Science Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (No. 51421006), Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University (No. IRT13061), National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (No. 51225901), the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41430751), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51479065) and Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 143 • Issue 8 • August 2017
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©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Aug 12, 2015
Accepted: Jan 31, 2017
Published online: May 15, 2017
Published in print: Aug 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Oct 15, 2017
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