Stochastic Programming with a Joint Chance Constraint Model for Reservoir Refill Operation Considering Flood Risk
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 143, Issue 1
Abstract
Reservoir refill operation modeling attempts to maximize a set of benefits while minimizing risks. The benefits and risks can be in opposition to each other, such as having enough water for hydropower generation while leaving enough room for flood protection. In addition to multiple objects, the uncertainty of streamflow can make decision making difficult. This paper develops a stochastic optimization model for reservoir refill operation with the objective of maximizing the expected synthesized energy production for a cascade system of hydropower stations while considering flood risk. Streamflow uncertainty is addressed by discretized streamflow scenarios and flood risk is controlled by a joint chance constraint restricting the occurrence probability. With the variability of flood risk level, two advancing refill scenarios for exploring operation benefit are presented. Scenario I loosens the current stagewise storage bounds conditions and allows advancing reservoir refills but keeps the flood risk level the same as the refill policies obtained under the current storage bounds. Scenario II keeps the current storage bounds unchanged but allows increases in flood risk level. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiluodu cascade system of reservoirs in China and investigates the optimal refill policies obtained by both scenarios. Compared with the benchmark obtained under the current storage bounds and lowest flood risk level, the results show (1) the synthesized energy production can be improved by 2.13% without changing the flood risk level under Scenario I, and (2) the synthesized energy production can also be increased by 0.21% at the expense of increasing the flood risk level by 4.4% when Scenario II is employed. As Scenario I produces higher benefit and lower risk than Scenario II, it is recommended to loosen the current stagewise storage bounds but to keep the flood risk level unchanged during refill operations.
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Acknowledgments
This study is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2015B28414), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51579068), the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry of the Ministry of Water Resources of China (Grant No. 201501007), and the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0400909). We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their in-depth reviews and constructive comments. The remarks and summary of reviewer comments provided by the editor and associate editor also are greatly appreciated.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 143 • Issue 1 • January 2017
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 2, 2015
Accepted: Jul 13, 2016
Published online: Sep 6, 2016
Published in print: Jan 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Feb 6, 2017
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