Field Data–Based Methodology for Estimating the Expected Pipe Break Rates of Water Distribution Systems
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 142, Issue 10
Abstract
Presented in this paper is a field data–based probabilistic approach to quantifying the expected pipe break rates of water distribution systems. Uncertain demands and variations in the roughness of pipes during their service lives are described as random variables. Sample values of these random variables are generated and input to a distribution system model to determine the resulting minimum and maximum pressures in Monte Carlo simulations. Based on an estimated break rate–maximum pressure relationship, the sample maximum pressures obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation are transformed into a sample of break rates, and the expected pipe break rate can subsequently be determined. The sample minimum pressures are used to gain a better understanding of the distribution network. This probabilistic approach is used for a part of the City of Hamilton’s network in Ontario, Canada. The results show that the frequency of low-pressure events is very small, but a higher minimum pressure criterion would inevitably increase expected pipe break rates. Local field data collection is necessary to use the proposed methodology. Savings resulting from reduced pipe break rates justify costs associated with data collection.
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Acknowledgments
The writers wish to thank the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada for its financial support for this research.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 142 • Issue 10 • October 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 31, 2015
Accepted: Mar 23, 2016
Published online: Jun 13, 2016
Published in print: Oct 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Nov 13, 2016
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