Time-Series Analysis of Water Demands in Three North Carolina Cities
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 142, Issue 8
Abstract
The timing of significant shifts in urban water use is highly relevant to water managers, who can better manage demand with an understanding of historic change. This study employs breakpoint and decomposition analyses to explore changes in water use for three North Carolina municipalities between 1990 and 2014. Although water demands were on the rise in each city during the early 1990s, per capita demands began to trend downward in the middle-to-latter years of that decade. The timing of this shift correlates with declines in manufacturing water uses. Per capita demand then remained stable from 2002 until 2007, when rates for all three cities shifted downward once again. This second shift follows the coordination and institutionalization of drought responses at the state level. Only Raleigh experienced another significant decline, with the implementation of conservation pricing in 2010. Moreover, while total withdrawals have remained stable for the cities of Durham and Greensboro since the mid-to-late 1990s, Raleigh saw rapid growth until 2010, when water policies caused the withdrawal rate to drop markedly. In sum, these results suggest that past shifts in urban water use have resulted from the interaction of globalization, water stress, and cross-scale policies. Water managers may wish to consider how globalization and water stress shape demand, both directly and through policy adoption.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful for early discussions on this research with Sankar Arumugam and Emily Zechman Berglund of North Carolina State University, as well as John Sabo and Albert Ruhi of Arizona State University. Appreciation is also extended to the municipalities who provided data for this study. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CBET-1204478, Water Sustainability and Climate; Grant No. SES-0951366, DMUU: Decision Center for a Desert City II: Urban Climate Adaptation; and Grant No. SES-1462086, DMUU: DCDC III: Transformational Solutions for Urban Water Sustainability Transitions in the Colorado River Basin. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendation expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation (NSF).
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 142 • Issue 8 • August 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 16, 2015
Accepted: Jan 20, 2016
Published online: Apr 13, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Sep 13, 2016
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