Risk Analysis for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Reservoir
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 141, Issue 8
Abstract
There are many uncertainties in real-time flood control operation of a reservoir, which create risks in flood control decision making. In this paper, three uncertainty factors—reservoir inflow-forecasting errors, outflow errors, and observation errors of reservoir storage capacity curve—are taken into account and quantified methods are proposed. With consideration of the three uncertainties and correlation between inflow-forecasting errors, reservoir water-level errors are derived using the stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing. Then the definition and calculation methods for flood risk at each moment and the integrated risk of the entire flood process are proposed. The Dahuofang reservoir in China is selected as the case study. The results shows that the risk resulting from the uncertainties is decreased by the reservoir flood regulation function and that the proposed method can provide a useful way to estimate the risks in real-time reservoir flood control.
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Acknowledgments
This study was funded by the National Scientific Program for Global Change Research of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2010CB951102), the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2013CB036406), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51179044).
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 141 • Issue 8 • August 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 24, 2014
Accepted: Sep 17, 2014
Published online: Nov 3, 2014
Discussion open until: Apr 3, 2015
Published in print: Aug 1, 2015
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