Assessment of Surface Runoff Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Lerma-Chapala Basin, Mexico
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140, Issue 12
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that vulnerability to climate change depends on three main factors: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Each factor was evaluated in a hydrologic context; for instance, exposure was interpreted as a change in surface runoff. Factors were combined using a geographic information system (GIS), and an overall methodology was proposed to map hydrologic vulnerability. The Lerma-Chapala basin was selected as a case study since the largest water body in Mexico is located at its outlet. The long-term rate of change in surface runoff was estimated considering the variation in future precipitation from 23 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and by using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method. Two climate change scenarios from an IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and three time horizons (2030, 2050, and 2100) were chosen. Results showed a decrease in surface runoff of up to 29% (A1B-2100) in the northern part of the basin, and consequently this area is likely to have more frequent droughts. However, it would be challenging to compensate for the lack of surface runoff since groundwater resources are already depleted, and thus adaptive measures need to be taken.
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Acknowledgments
The first author expresses gratitude to the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACyT, by its acronym in Spanish) for its continuous financial support. The preparation of this paper was made possible with financial aid from Project TH-1005.1 (Atlas de Vulnerabilidad Hídrica ante el Cambio Climático, Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua). Reviews by three anonymous referees and the journal’s associate editor improved this paper considerably.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140 • Issue 12 • December 2014
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Jul 26, 2012
Accepted: Jan 10, 2014
Published online: Jan 13, 2014
Discussion open until: Nov 12, 2014
Published in print: Dec 1, 2014
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