Simulating High-Elevation Hydropower with Regional Climate Warming in the West Slope, Sierra Nevada
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140, Issue 5
Abstract
Water systems in snowmelt-dominated hydroregions such as California’s Sierra Nevada mountains are sensitive to regional climate change, hydropower systems in particular. In this study, a water resources management model was developed for the upper west slope Sierra Nevada to understand the potential effects of regional climate warming on hydropower at the watershed scale, a scale that has been largely neglected but is important for hydroregional planning. The model is developed with the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) and includes most water management infrastructure in the study region. Hydropower is simulated assuming historical long-term electricity demand and a spill minimization rule. The method is suitable for simulating generation for most of the main watersheds in the region. To assess the potential effect of climate warming, uniform air temperature increases of 0°C, 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C were considered, with no change in precipitation, to approximate regional warming through 2100. The highly productive northern Sierra Nevada sees large reductions in hydropower generation with decreases in annual runoff. The central watersheds see less reduction in annual runoff and can adapt better to changes in runoff timing. Generation in southern watersheds, which are less productive, decreases. Results from this study can help identify which watersheds might easily adapt to climate change, where hydropower is likely to conflict with other uses, and where more detailed operational studies are needed.
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Acknowledgments
This work was funded in part by the California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) program. We thank the Pacific Gas & Electric Company and the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission for providing historical data, the Stockholm Environment Institute for providing and supporting WEAP and hydrology data, and students Jason Emmons and Shannon Brown for their data-gathering and modeling assistance. Finally, we also thank the anonymous reviewers of this article for their thoughtful critique.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140 • Issue 5 • May 2014
Pages: 714 - 723
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 4, 2011
Accepted: Apr 18, 2013
Published online: Apr 20, 2013
Discussion open until: Sep 20, 2013
Published in print: May 1, 2014
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