Reliability Assessment for Water Supply Systems under Uncertainties
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140, Issue 4
Abstract
Reliability assessment of water supply systems (WSSs) is an important aspect of WSS planning and operations. Traditionally, WSS reliability involves the comparison of hydraulics (e.g., pressure or available water volume) and water quality (e.g., residual chlorine) parameters with their desired minimum level of service under various emergency loading conditions. To compute hydraulic dependent parameters (e.g., pressures, flow), different algorithms solve continuity and energy equations expressed in terms of certain independent parameters (e.g., roughness parameters and nodal demands) with certainty. Similarly, transport equations expressed in terms of different quality parameters are solved deterministically to compute water quality dependent parameters (e.g., residual chlorine). However, it is extremely challenging, even impossible, to estimate network-independent parameters with certainty. Therefore, estimated dependent parameters based on semiquantitative information bear uncertainty, which leads to a question of how reliable current reliability assessment results are. To address this issue, this paper proposes a new means of reliability assessment in which the reliability of a WSS is expressed in terms of utility and associated beliefs. The methodology developed provides an estimate of the uncertainties inherent in traditional reliability assessment results. It is expected that the proposed methodology will help municipalities to make informed decisions in order to increase the safety and security of public health.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This research has been carried out as a part of NSERC-SPG (Strategic Project Grants) funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). The authors would like to express sincere appreciation to the anonymous reviewers for their suggestion, which helped to improve the quality of the article.
References
Cheung, P., Zyl, J. V., and Reis, L. (2005). “Extension of epanet for pressure driven demand modeling in water distribution system.” Proc., CCWI2005—Water Management for the 21st Century, Vol. 1, Center for Water Systems, Univ. of Exeter, Exeter, U.K., 215–226.
Deb, A. (1995). “Distribution system performance evaluation.” American Water Works Association Research Foundation, Denver.
Dempster, A. P. (1968). “A generalisation of Bayesian inference.” J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B, 30(2), 205–247.
EPANET [Computer software]. Water Supply and Water Resources Division, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Office of Research And Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, OH.
Fisher, I., Kastl, G., Sathasivan, A., and Jegatheesan, V. (2011). “Suitability of chlorine bulk decay models for planning and management of water distribution systems.” Crit. Rev. Environ. Sci. Technol., 41(20), 1843–1882.
Fujiwara, O., and Ganesharajah, T. (1993). “Reliability assessment of water supply systems with storage and distribution networks.” Water Resour. Res., 29(8), 2917–2924.
Gupta, R., and Bhave, P. R. (1994). “Reliability analysis of water distribution systems.” J. Environ. Eng., 447–460.
Gupta, R., and Bhave, P. R. (2007). “Fuzzy parameters in pipe network analysis.” Civ. Eng. Environ. Syst., 24(1), 33–54.
Islam, M. S., Sadiq, R., Rodriguez, M. J., Francisque, A., Najjaran, H., and Hoorfar, M. (2011). “Leakage detection and location in water distribution system using a fuzzy-based methodology.” Urban Water J., 8(6), 351–365.
Lansey, K., Mays, L. W., and Tung, Y. K. (2002). “Reliability and availability analysis of water distribution systems.” Chapter 10, Urban water supply handbook, Larry W. Mays, ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Lee, H. M. (1996). “Applying fuzzy set theory to evaluate the rate of aggregative risk in software development.” Fuzzy Sets Syst., 79(3), 323–336.
Lund, V., and Ormerod, K. (1995). “The influence of disinfection processes on biofilm formation in water distribution systems.” Water Res., 29(4), 1013–1021.
MacKenzie, D., Bgagwan, J., and Lambert, A. (2002). “Leakage reduction software developed through the Water Research Commission.” 〈http://www.miya-water.com/user_files/Data_and_Research/miyas_experts_articles/08_Other%20aspects%20of%20NRW/04_Leakage%20reduction%20software%20developed%20through%20the%20water%20research%20commission.pdf〉 (Dec. 21, 2013).
MATLAB R2010a [Computer software]. Mathworks, Natick, MA.
Mays, L. W. (2000). Water distribution systems handbook, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Ostfeld, A., Kogan, D., and Shamir, Uri. (2002). “Reliability simulation of water distribution systems-single and multiquality.” Urban Water, 4(1), 53–61.
Pathirana, A. (2010). “EPANET2 desktop application for pressure driven demand modeling.” Proc. Water Distribution System Analysis, ASCE, Reston, VA.
Revelli, R., and Ridolfi, L. (2002). “Fuzzy approach for analysis of pipe networks.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 93–101.
Rossman, L. A. (2000). “EPANET2 user manual and programmer’s toolkits.” Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati.
Sadiq, R., and Rodriguez, M. J. (2005). “Interpreting drinking water quality in the distribution system using Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence.” Chemosphere, 59(2), 177–188.
Shafer, G. (1976). A mathematical theory of evidence, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Shang, F., and Uber, J. G. (2008). “EPANET multi-species extension user’s manual.” Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati.
Su, Y. C., Mays, L. W., Duan, N., and Lansey, K. E. (1987). “Reliability-based optimization model for water distribution systems.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 1539–1556.
Surendran, S., Tanyimboh, T., and Tabesh, M. (2005). “Peaking demand factor-based reliability analysis of water distribution systems.” Adv. Eng. Softw., 36(11–12), 789–796.
Tabesh, M., Tanyimboh, T. T., and Burrows, R. (2001). “Extended period reliability analysis of water distribution systems based on head driven simulation method.” Proc., ASCE World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, ASCE, Reston, VA.
Wagner, J. M., Shamir, U., and Marks, D. (1988). “Water distribution reliability: Analytical methods.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 253–275.
Xu, C., and Powell, R. (1991). “Water supply system reliability: concepts and measures.” Civ. Eng. Syst., 8(4), 191–195.
Zadeh, L. A. (1965). “Fuzzy sets.” Inf. Control, 8(3), 338–353.
Zhao, Y., Luo, B., and Zhuang, B. (2010). “Hydraulic and water quality reliability analysis of water distribution system.” Proc., 2nd Conf. on Environmental Science and Information Application Technology, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Danvers, MA, 580–583.
Zhuang, B., Lansey, K., and Kang, D. (2011). “Reliability/availability analysis of water distribution systems considering adaptive pump operation.” Proc. ASCE World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, ASCE, Reston, VA.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 11, 2012
Accepted: Jan 16, 2013
Published online: Jan 18, 2013
Discussion open until: Jun 18, 2013
Published in print: Apr 1, 2014
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.