Dealing with Uncertainty in Water Distribution System Models: A Framework for Real-Time Modeling and Data Assimilation
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140, Issue 2
Abstract
Water distribution system (WDS) models may improve system control when applied using real-time data, and in doing so, help meet consumer and regulatory demands. Such real-time modeling often overlooks the multiple sources of system uncertainty that cascade into model forecasts and affect the identification of robust operational solutions. This paper considers key uncertainties in WDS modeling and reviews promising approaches for uncertainty quantification and reduction in the modeling cascade from calibration, through data assimilation, to model forecasting. An uncertainty framework exemplifying how such methods may be applied to propagate uncertainty through the real-time control process is outlined. Innovative methods to constrain uncertainty when the time-horizon and data availability limit such thorough analysis are also discussed, alongside challenges that need to be addressed to incorporate uncertain information into the control decision. Further work evaluating the value of these methods in light of computational resources, and the nature of model errors in real WDS, is required. Such work is necessary to demonstrate the benefits of considering model and data uncertainty, leading to robust control decisions.
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Acknowledgments
This paper has resulted from work conducted as part of ‘PREPARED Enabling Change,’ a European Commission Seventh Framework project (Grant agreement no.: 244232, 2010–2014). Three anonymous reviewers are also thanked for thorough and constructive comments.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140 • Issue 2 • February 2014
Pages: 169 - 183
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 27, 2012
Accepted: Oct 18, 2012
Published online: Oct 19, 2012
Discussion open until: Mar 19, 2013
Published in print: Feb 1, 2014
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