550-Year Reconstruction of Streamflow Variability in Spring Valley, Nevada
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138, Issue 4
Abstract
Spring Valley, Nevada, is one of several areas proposed for the pumping and export of ground-water to Las Vegas by the Southern Nevada Water Authority. Long-term annual-to-decadal variability of water supply in the region is not well understood, so tree-ring records were used to develop a longer baseline of variability in streamflow and drought episodes. Long-lived (up to about 600 years), climatically sensitive single-leaf pinyon pine (Pinus monophylla) trees within the Cleve Creek watershed provided a 550-year (1458–2007) tree-ring chronology that was compared to water-year mean monthly runoff from USGS gauge 10243700. Using a proxy record from within the watershed under study increased confidence in the statistical relationships used for streamflow reconstruction. Linear correlation between the tree-ring chronology and the streamflow record over 34 years of overlap was 0.73, explaining 53% of the instrumental variance. After comparison with multiple linear regression and linear regression with transformed data, the line of organic correlation (LOC) method was used to develop a streamflow reconstruction with water-year resolution from 1458 to 2007. During these 550 years, a total of 257 wet and dry episodes were quantified according to their duration, magnitude, and peak. The longest episode was 1848–1855 (an 8-year wet spell); the greatest magnitude belonged to the drought of the mid-1600s (1652–1655); the three highest peaks all corresponded to dry episodes, 1506–1508, 1590, and 1933–1936. Using a numerical scoring rule, the 1930s drought (1933–1936) was in eighth position, making it one of the most remarkable episodes in the past half millennium. This result is not entirely consistent with recent dendroclimatic reconstructions for the eastern Sierra, suggesting that regional drought severity varies by locality within the Great Basin. Evaluating the responses of trees at multiple elevations to various local climate and hydrological parameters through in situ monitoring will help refine tree-ring reconstructions of past ecohydrological conditions.
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Acknowledgments
Research supported, in part, by a grant from Southern Nevada Water Authority. S. Strachan was also supported, in part, by the Office of the Vice President for Research at the University of Nevada, Reno. F. Biondi and S. Strachan were also supported, in part, by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement EPS-0814372 and Grant No. P2C2-0823480. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the funding agencies. We thank J.D. Salas and L. Saito for helpful discussions of statistical and hydrological issues, as well as the DendroLab personnel who contributed to field and laboratory work, particularly Jonathan Cheek, Mackenzie Kilpatrick, Michael Koch, and Katie Mann. The comments and suggestions of two anonymous reviewers allowed us to improve an earlier manuscript.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138 • Issue 4 • July 2012
Pages: 326 - 333
Copyright
© 2012. American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Oct 5, 2010
Accepted: Aug 1, 2011
Published online: Aug 6, 2011
Published in print: Jul 1, 2012
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