Staged Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Water Supply in Amman, Jordan
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138, Issue 5
Abstract
This research develops a multistage stochastic linear programming (LP) model to assist in the process of water system planning and management under demographic and climate change in Amman, Jordan, over the next 75 years. Climate change is projected to have a gradual exacerbating effect on Amman’s water stress over the next century, and water resources management strategies and policies put in place now will likely influence water use patterns for generations to come. A multistage decision model allows the identification of both adaptation strategies that should be implemented now and actions likely to be needed later, depending on future climate and demographic conditions. For Amman, the model recommends that household water reuse be expanded immediately, large-scale wastewater reclamation begin within 25 years, and mega-scale water import projects be postponed for several decades. Although these recommendations for the future will almost certainly change as additional information is acquired, by identifying now the actions most likely to be needed in the future, options for their implementation can be reserved, and feasibility studies begun.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to many Jordanian scholars and friends for their patience in explaining Amman’s water resources situation. We would like to give special thanks to Richard Vogel, Julie Schaffner, David Rosenberg, Wa’il Abu-El-Sha’r, Fayez Abdulla, Jose Valdez, and Ross Hagan, who oversaw the development of this model and its input data. The comments of the reviewers improved the paper greatly. This material is based on work supported by a Fulbright Fellowship and a National Science Foundation (NSF) graduate research fellowship. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138 • Issue 5 • September 2012
Pages: 403 - 411
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 10, 2010
Accepted: Jul 8, 2011
Published online: Jul 11, 2011
Published in print: Sep 1, 2012
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