Impacts and Uncertainty of Climate Change on Water Resource Management of the Peribonka River System (Canada)
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 136, Issue 3
Abstract
The impacts of climate change on medium-term reservoir operations for the Peribonka water resource system (Quebec, Canada) were evaluated with annual and seasonal hydropower production indicators and flood control criteria. According to simulations under the current operating rules in a climate change context, the tendency is for a reduction in mean annual hydropower production and an increase in spills, despite an increase in the annual average inflow to the reservoirs. The main results indicate that annual mean hydropower would change by , and spills by . A broad range of climate projections—a combination of five general circulation models with two greenhouse gas scenarios each—were used in order to evaluate the uncertainty of these future potential climates on floods and hydroelectric production. Climate projections were downscaled with the change factor method (also called the Delta method) at a horizon centered in 2050. To represent natural variability, a stochastic weather generator was used to produce 30 synthetic climate series of 30 years each, representative of each climate change projection as well as of the climate of the control period. The hydrological impacts of climate change were evaluated with a lumped hydrological model and the hydrological regimes were analyzed according to spring flood characteristics and the average inflows. In general, the projections indicate an increase in annual inflow, earlier peaks and greater volumes during the spring flood. The analyses show that a power plant managed with a reservoir is sensitive to the operating rules and that these rules should be re-examined in order to take account of new seasonal hydrological contexts.
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Acknowledgments
This article presents a portion of a project of the impacts and adaptation program of the Ouranos Consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change. The writers want to thank specific members of the Ouranos Consortium. First, Mrs. Diane Chaumont for her contribution to the production of climate change projections and Mr. Luc Roy for his advice about hydropower production indicators. Also, the writers want to thank Mr. Bruno Larouche from the Alcan Company for their collaboration in supplying of all the data needed to simulate the water resource system.
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© 2010 ASCE.
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Received: Aug 21, 2008
Accepted: Jul 14, 2009
Published online: Jul 16, 2009
Published in print: May 2010
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