Transferability of Community-Based Collision Prediction Models for Use in Road Safety Planning Applications
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 136, Issue 10
Abstract
Collision prediction models (CPMs) are statistically developed mathematical models that relate the occurrence of traffic collisions to various traits or explanatory variables of locations and zones. This paper describes the use of several recently developed community-based, macro-level CPMs and model-use guidelines in a CPM transferability case study for spatial and temporal transferability. The objective was to test the model-use guidelines in an application that involved transferring CPMs developed using 1996 data for the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) for use in the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD) using 2003 data. The GVRD and CORD are regions located 400 km apart in the Province of British Columbia, Canada. The case study was carried out in two parts. First, CPMs were developed using 2003 data for the City of Kelowna following recommended community-based, macrolevel collision prediction model development guidelines. Second, existing CPMs were transferred from the GVRD to the CORD, using the recommended transferability guidelines. An analysis of the results revealed that macrolevel CPM transferability was possible and no more complicated than microlevel CPM transferability. To facilitate the development of reliable community-based macrolevel collision prediction models, it is recommended that CPMs be transferred rather than developed whenever and wherever communities lack sufficient data of adequate quality.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The writers would like to thank the National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, TransLink, and the City of Kelowna Transportation Division for their support of this research.UNSPECIFIED
References
de Leur, P., and Sayed, T. (2003). “A framework to proactively consider road safety within the road planning process.” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 30(4), 711–719.
Fotheringham, A. S., and Wegner, M. (2000). Spatial models and GIS: New potential and new models, Taylor & Francis Inc., London.
Hadayeghi, A. Shalaby, A., and Persaud, B. (2003). “Macro-level accident prediction models for evaluating the safety of urban transportation systems.” Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Hadayeghi, A., Shalaby, A., Persaud, B., and Cheung C. (2006). “Temporal transferability and updating of zonal level accident prediction models.” Accid. Anal Prev., 38(3), 579–589.
Harwood, D. W., Council, F. M., Hauer, E., Hughes, W. E., and Vogt, A. (2000). “Prediction of the expected safety performance of rural two-lane highways.” FHWA-RD-99-207, FHWA, U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Washington, D.C.
Ladron de Guevara, F., Washington, S., and Oh, J. (2004) “Forecasting crashes at the planning level: A simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona.” Presented at Transportation Research Board 2004 Annual Meeting, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Lovegrove, G. (2007). Road Safety planning, new tools for sustainable road safety and community development, T. Muller, ed., VDM Verlag, Berlin.
Lovegrove, G., and Stanos, J. (2006). Okanagan Valley Quest Model Transportation Database Technical Rep., Okanagan, Kelowna, BC, Canada.
Lovegrove, G. R., and Sayed, T. (2006). “Macro-level collision prediction models for evaluating neighbourhood traffic safety.” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 33(5), 609–621.
Numerical Algorithms Group (NAG). (2006). The GLIM System, Release 4 manual, Royal Statistical Society, Oxford, U.K.
Openshaw, S. (1984). The modifiable areal unit problem, GeoBooks, Norwich, U.K.
Persaud, B., Lord, D., and Palmisano, J. (2002). “Calibration and transferability of accident prediction models for urban intersections.” Transp. Res. Rec., 1784, 57–64.
Sawalha, Z., and Sayed, T. (2006a). “Transferability of accident prediction models.” Safety Sci., 44(3), 209–219.
Sawalha, Z., and Sayed, T. (2006b). “Traffic accidents modeling: Some statistical issues.” Can. J. Civ. Eng., 33(9), 1115–1124.
van Minnen, J. (1999). “The suitable size of residential areas: A theoretical study with testing to practical experiences.” Rep. No. R-99-25, SWOV, Liedschendam, The Netherlands.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 136 • Issue 10 • October 2010
Pages: 871 - 880
Copyright
© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: Mar 11, 2009
Accepted: Dec 2, 2009
Published online: Mar 6, 2010
Published in print: Oct 2010
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.