Technical Papers
Mar 8, 2021

Data-Based Windstorm Type Identification Algorithm and Extreme Wind Speed Prediction

Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 147, Issue 5

Abstract

The extreme wind speed estimation method, which is critical for designing wind load calculation for building structures, should consider windstorm climate types for mixed climates. However, it is very difficult to obtain windstorm climate types from meteorological data records, therefore, it restricts the application of extreme wind speed estimation in mixed climates. This paper first proposes a windstorm type identification algorithm based on a numerical pattern recognition method that utilizes feature extraction and generalization. Subsequently, three sets of model experiments are conducted using data from three meteorological stations on the southeast coast of China from 1990 to 2016, and the prediction of a single station model and a regional model is discussed. The prediction performances of six machine learning algorithms under different experiments are compared. Based on classification results, the extreme wind speeds calculated based on mixed windstorm types are compared with those obtained from conventional methods, and the effects on structural design for different return periods are analyzed.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

Data Availability Statement

Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of National Natural Science Foundation of China (52008314, 51678451), Shanghai Pujiang Plan (No. 19PJ1409800), National Key research and Development Program of China (2018YFC0809600, 2018YFC0809604). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the preceding agencies.

References

Bernaola-Galván, P., P. C. Ivanov, L. A. Nunes Amaral, and H. E. Stanley. 2001. “Scale invariance in the nonstationarity of human heart rate.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 87 (16): 168105. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.87.168105.
Bishop, C. M. 2006. Pattern recognition and machine learning. Berlin: Springer.
Boughorbel, S., F. Jarray, and M. El-Anbari. 2017. “Optimal classifier for imbalanced data using Matthews correlation coefficient metric.” PLoS One 12 (6): e0177678. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0177678.
Bradley, A. P. 1997. “The use of the area under the ROC curve in the evaluation of machine learning algorithms.” Pattern Recognit. 30 (7): 1145–1159. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-3203(96)00142-2.
Breiman, L. 2001. “Random forests.” Mach. Learn. 45 (1): 5–32. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324.
Chawla, N. V., K. W. Bowyer, L. O. Hall, and W. P. Kegelmeyer. 2002. “SMOTE: Synthetic minority over-sampling technique.” J. Artif. Intell. Res. 16: 321–357. https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.953.
Chen, G. Z., and F. T. Lombardo. 2019. “A revised automated classification method of thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm wind data based on a neural network.” In Proc., 15th Int. Conf. on Wind Engineering (ICWE). Beijing: International Associations for Wind Engineering.
Choi, E. C. 1999. “Extreme wind characteristics over Singapore—An area in the equatorial belt.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 83 (1–3): 61–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(99)00061-6.
Choi, E. C., and F. A. Hidayat. 2002. “Gust factors for thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm winds.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 90 (12–15): 1683–1696. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(02)00279-9.
Choi, E. C. C., and A. Tanurdjaja. 2002. “Extreme wind studies in Singapore. An area with mixed weather system.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 90 (12): 1611–1630. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(02)00274-X.
Cook, N. J. 1982. “Towards better estimation of extreme winds.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 9 (3): 295–323.
Cook, N. J. 2004. “Confidence limits for extreme wind speeds in mixed climates.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 92 (1): 41–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2003.09.037.
Cook, N. J., R. Ian Harris, and R. Whiting. 2003. “Extreme wind speeds in mixed climates revisited.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (3): 403–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(02)00397-5.
Cortes, C., and V. Vapnik. 1995. “Support-vector networks.” Mach. Learn. 20 (3): 273–297. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022627411411.
De Gaetano, P., M. P. Repetto, T. Repetto, and G. Solari. 2014. “Separation and classification of extreme wind events from anemometric records.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 126: 132–143.
Domingos, P., and M. Pazzani. 1997. “On the optimality of the simple Bayesian classifier under zero-one loss.” Mach. Learn. 29 (2–3): 103–130. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007413511361.
Durañona, V., M. Sterling, and C. J. Baker. 2007. “An analysis of extreme non-synoptic winds.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 95 (9): 1007–1027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2007.01.014.
ESDU (Engineering Sciences Data Unit). 2004. Wind speed profiles over terrain with roughness changes. ESDU 84011. London: ESDU.
Friedman, J. H. 2001. “Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine.” Ann. Stat. 29 (5): 1189–1232. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1013203451.
Gomes, L., and B. J. Vickery. 1976. “On thunderstorm wind gusts in Australia.” Inst. Eng. Aust. Civ. Eng. Trans. CE 18 (2): 33–39.
Gomes, L., and B. J. Vickery. 1978. “Extreme wind speeds in mixed wind climates.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 2 (4): 331–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(78)90018-1.
Gumbel, E. J. 2012. Statistics of extremes. New York: Columbia University Press.
Harris, R. 1999. “Improvements to the method of independent storms.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 80 (1–2): 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(98)00123-8.
Jung, Christopher, and Dirk Schindler. 2019. “Changing wind speed distributions under future global climate.” Energy Convers. Manage. 198 (Oct): 111841. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.111841.
Kotsiantis, S. B., I. Zaharakis, and P. Pintelas. 2007. “Supervised machine learning: A review of classification techniques.” Emerging Artif. Intell. Appl. Comput. Eng. 160 (1): 3–24.
Lombardo, F. T., J. A. Main, and E. Simiu. 2009. “Automated extraction and classification of thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm wind data for extreme-value analysis.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 97 (3): 120–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2009.03.001.
Luo, G. 2016. “A review of automatic selection methods for machine learning algorithms and hyper-parameter values.” Network Model. Anal. Health Inf. Bioinf. 5 (1): 18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13721-016-0125-6.
Mo, H. M., H. P. Hong, and F. Fan. 2015. “Estimating the extreme wind speed for regions in China using surface wind observations and reanalysis data.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 143 (Aug): 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2015.04.005.
Nanopoulos, A., R. Alcock, and Y. Manolopoulos. 2001. “Feature-based classification of time-series data.” Int. J. Comput. Res. 10 (3): 49–61. https://doi.org/10.5555/766914.766918.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). n.d. “Integrated surface hourly data base (3505).” Accessed February 4, 2021. https://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/cdopoemain.cmd?datasetabbv=DS3505&countryabbv=&georegionabbv=&resolution=40.
Ouarda, T. B., and C. Charron. 2018. “On the mixture of wind speed distribution in a Nordic region.” Energy Convers. Manage. 174 (Oct): 33–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.08.007.
Palutikof, J., B. Brabson, D. Lister, and S. Adcock. 1999. “A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds.” Meteorol. Appl. 6(2): 119–132.
Panofsky, H. A., and A. A. Townsend. 1964. “Change of terrain roughness and the wind profile.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 90 (384): 147–155. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.49709038404.
Pedregosa, F., et al. 2011. “Scikit-learn: Machine learning in python.” J. Mach. Learn. Res. 12 (Oct): 2825–2830.
Pickands, J., III. 1975. “Statistical inference using extreme order statistics.” Ann. Stat. 3 (1): 119–131.
Press, S. J., and S. Wilson. 1978. “Choosing between logistic regression and discriminant analysis.” J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 73 (364): 699–705. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1978.10480080.
Riera, J., and L. Nanni. 1989. “Pilot study of extreme wind velocities in a mixed climate considering wind orientation.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 32 (1–2): 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(89)90012-3.
Shin, J. Y., T. B. Ouarda, and T. Lee. 2016. “Heterogeneous mixture distributions for modeling wind speed, application to the UAE.” Renewable Energy 91 (Jun): 40–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.01.041.
Simiu, E., and N. Heckert. 1996. “Extreme wind distribution tails: A ‘peaks over threshold’ approach.” J. Struct. Eng. 122 (5): 539–547. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(1996)122:5(539).
Simiu, E., and D. Yeo. 2019. Wind effects on structures: Modern structural design for wind. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Blackwell.
Sun, Y., A. K. C. Wong, and M. S. Kamel. 2009. “Classification of imbalanced data: A review.” Int. J. Pattern Recognit. Artif. Intell. 23 (4): 687–719. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218001409007326.
Tulyakov, S., S. Jaeger, V. Govindaraju, and D. Doermann. 2008. “Review of classifier combination methods.” In Machine learning in document analysis and recognition, 361–386. Berlin: Springer.
Twisdale, L. A., and P. J. Vickery. 1992. “Research on thunderstorm wind design parameters.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 41 (1–3): 545–556. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(92)90461-I.
Van der Hoven, I. 1957. “Power spectrum of horizontal wind speed in the frequency range from 0.0007 to 900 cycles per hour.” J. Meteorol. 14 (2): 160–164. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1957)014%3C0160:PSOHWS%3E2.0.CO;2.
Witten, I. H., E. Frank, M. A. Hall, and C. J. Pal. 2016. Data mining: Practical machine learning tools and techniques. San Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann.
Wold, S., K. Esbensen, and P. Geladi. 1987. “Principal component analysis.” Chemometr. Intell. Lab. Syst. 2 (1–3): 37–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-7439(87)80084-9.
Xi, X., E. Keogh, C. Shelton, L. Wei, and C. A. Ratanamahatana. 2006. “Fast time series classification using numerosity reduction.” In Proc., 23rd Int. Conf. on Machine Learning. New York: Association for Computing Machinery.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Structural Engineering
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 147Issue 5May 2021

History

Received: Sep 1, 2019
Accepted: Oct 20, 2020
Published online: Mar 8, 2021
Published in print: May 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Aug 8, 2021

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Assistant Professor, State Key Lab of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China; Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Wind Resistant Technology for Bridge Structures, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7489-923X
Teng Ma, S.M.ASCE
Ph.D. Candidate, State Key Lab of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China; Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Wind Resistant Technology for Bridge Structures, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China.
Professor, State Key Lab of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China; Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Wind Resistant Technology for Bridge Structures, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China; State Key Laboratory of Mountain Bridge and Tunnel Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong Univ., Chongqing 400074, China (corresponding author). Email: [email protected]
Yaojun Ge
Professor, State Key Lab of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China; Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Wind Resistant Technology for Bridge Structures, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China.

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share