Prediction of Time to Corrosion-Induced Concrete Cracking Based on Fracture Mechanics Criteria

A review of the literature shows that current research on corrosion-affected reinforced concrete structures focuses more on strength deterioration than on serviceability deterioration. For corrosion-induced concrete cracking, little research has been based on fracture mechanics criteria and stochastic processes. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed for predicting the time to corrosion-induced concrete cracking based on fracture mechanics criteria. A stochastic model with a nonstationary lognormal process was developed for corrosion-induced concrete cracking, and the first-passage probability method was employed to predict the time-dependent probability of its occurrence. The merit of using a nonstationary lognormal process for corrosion-induced concrete cracking is that it eliminates unrealistic negative values of the normal distribution for inherently positive values of physical parameters. It was found that the diameter of reinforcing steel $D$, corrosion rate $i_{\mathrm{corr}}$, and effective modulus of elasticity $E_{ef}$ have the most influence on the probability of corrosion-induced concrete cracking. The methodology presented in the paper can serve as a tool for structural engineers and asset managers in making decisions with regard to the serviceability of corrosion-affected concrete structures.