Probabilistic Prediction of Postdisaster Functionality Loss of Community Building Portfolios Considering Utility Disruptions
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 144, Issue 4
Abstract
This study proposes a framework for the probabilistic prediction of building portfolio functionality loss (BPFL) in a community following an earthquake hazard. Building functionality is jointly affected by both the structural integrity of the building itself and the availability of critical utilities. To this end, the framework incorporates three analyses for a given earthquake scenario: (1) evaluation of the spatial distribution of physical damages to both buildings and utility infrastructure; (2) computation of utility disruptions deriving from the cascading failures occurring in interdependent utility networks; and (3) by integrating the results from the first two analyses, making a probabilistic prediction of the postevent functionality loss of building portfolios at the community scale. The framework couples the functionality analyses of physical systems of distinct topologies and hazard response characteristics in a consistent spatial scale, providing a rich array of information for community hazard mitigation and resilience planning. An implementation of the BPFL framework is illustrated using the residential building portfolio in Shelby County, Tennessee, subjected to an earthquake hazard.
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Acknowledgments
The research reported herein was supported, in part, by the Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, funded by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) under Cooperative Agreement No. 70NANB15H044. This support is gratefully acknowledged. The authors also thank Dr. Leonard Duenas Osorio at Rice University for his helpful advice at early stage of this study. The views expressed are those of the authors, and may not represent the official position of the NIST.
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Published In
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 144 • Issue 4 • April 2018
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 2, 2016
Accepted: Sep 7, 2017
Published online: Jan 19, 2018
Published in print: Apr 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Jun 19, 2018
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