Joint Modeling of the Parent Population and Extreme Value Distributions of the Mean Wind Velocity
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 142, Issue 2
Abstract
The analysis of wind actions and effects on structures involves the knowledge of the parent population and extreme value distributions of the mean wind velocity. In spite of an impressive amount of measurements, refined probabilistic models and detailed applications to the study of specific sites, there is an equally disheartening lack of available probabilistic information at the territorial scale, and, therefore, of tools effectively applicable in the engineering and codification sectors. Almost all of the international standards and codes report sufficiently reliable maps of the mean wind velocity with 50-year return periods. On the other hand, there are still few regulations that provide the distribution of the yearly maximum value of the mean wind velocity or such value as a function of the return period. Furthermore, no regulations provide the distribution of the parent population of the mean wind velocity that may be very important for serviceability and fatigue analyses. This paper introduces a joint representation of the parent population and extreme value distributions of the mean wind velocity of synoptic extratropical cyclones; starting from this model, simple but reliable expressions are derived, directly applicable in the engineering and codification sectors, aimed at bridging the gap described. The obtained expressions are critically examined, pointing out their advantages but also some apparent critical issues. A preliminary application of these expressions is carried out with reference to the Italian territory.
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Published In
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 142 • Issue 2 • February 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 9, 2014
Accepted: Aug 11, 2015
Published online: Sep 29, 2015
Published in print: Feb 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Feb 29, 2016
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