Inference of Blast Wavefront Parameter Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 141, Issue 12
Abstract
Probabilistic risk assessment methodologies are typically employed to optimize resource allocations for blast risk mitigation schemes, which may be necessary for the design of new blast resistant facilities as well as the hardening of existing construction. A key aspect of any blast risk assessment methodology is the quantification of uncertainty inherent in the prediction of shock wave parameters. In this study, a blast pressure database that was generated from arena testing using live explosives is used to infer the probability distributions that best represent the model error affecting the prediction of four key wavefront parameters, namely: the peak pressure, specific impulse, duration, and waveform coefficient of the positive pressure phase. Confidence intervals are given for the descriptors of each distribution and their percentiles. In addition, two sets of partial factors are developed for the blast-resistant design of structures requiring high level of protection (LOP) based on a simplified reliability approach. Two recent North American standards addressing the design of buildings subjected to blast loads recommend load combinations in which a partial load factor of 1.0 is applied to blast induced actions. Although this approach aligns with the current design practice followed in the case of rare events (e.g., earthquakes), it may not be applicable in the case of blast loads as a result of the degree of uncertainty present even when a design basis threat is quantified. To account for this uncertainty, partial factors for the major wavefront parameters of the reflected shock wavefront are presented.
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Acknowledgments
This research was facilitated with funding provided by McMaster University Centre for Effective Design of Structures (CEDS), funded through the Ontario Research and Development Challenge Fund (ORDCF) of the Ministry of Research and Innovation (MRI), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Canadian Concrete Masonry Producers Association (CCMPA), and the Canada Masonry Design Centre (CMDC). The authors are very grateful to the staff of the Canadian Explosives Research Laboratory (CERL) who conducted the field blast tests and to the Canadian Forces for providing the range where the tests were conducted. The technical support provided by CERL has been instrumental in the analysis and interpretation of the test data and the computer simulation of test blast scenarios via BLASTX and Air3d software.
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Published In
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 141 • Issue 12 • December 2015
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 7, 2013
Accepted: Jan 30, 2015
Published online: Apr 24, 2015
Discussion open until: Sep 24, 2015
Published in print: Dec 1, 2015
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