Impact of Model Errors of Burst Capacity Models on the Reliability Evaluation of Corroding Pipelines
Publication: Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice
Volume 7, Issue 1
Abstract
This paper quantifies the impact of model error associated with the burst capacity model on the probability of burst of corroding oil and gas pipelines due to the internal pressure. Three burst pressure models that are widely used in the pipeline industry, namely the B31G Modified, det norske veritas (DNV), and pipeline corrosion failure criterion (PCORRC) models, are considered in the analyses. The time-dependent probabilities of burst of three hypothetical examples, which are representative of the oil and gas transmission pipelines in the United States, are evaluated by using the first-order reliability method (FORM) to carry out the comparative study. The analysis results indicate that the model error has a substantial effect on the burst probability evaluated. The probabilities of burst evaluated by considering the model error can be several orders of magnitude higher than those evaluated by ignoring the model error. The results underscore the critical importance of including the model error associated with the burst capacity model in the reliability analysis of corroding pipelines.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the Natural Sciences and Research Council (NSERC) of Canada and TransCanada Ltd. through the collaborative research development program.
References
Al-Amin, M., and Zhou, W. (2013). “Evaluating the system reliability of corroding pipelines based on inspection data.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 10(9), 1161–1175.
ASME. (2012a). “Gas transmission and distribution piping systems.”, New York.
ASME. (2012b). “Pipeline transportation systems for liquids and slurries.”, New York.
Chauhan, V., Brister, J., and Dafea, M. (2008). “A review of methods for assessing the remaining strength of corroded pipelines.”, U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, Washington, DC.
CSA (Canadian Standard Association). (2007). “Oil and gas pipeline systems.”, Mississauga, ON, Canada.
DNV (Det Norske Veritas). (1999). “Corroded pipelines.”, Hovik, Norway.
Jiao, G., Sotberg, T., and Igland, R. T. (1995). “SUPERB 2M statistical data-basic uncertainty measures for reliability analysis of offshore pipelines.”, Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute, Trondheim, Norway.
Kiefner, J. F., and Vieth, P. H. (1989). “A modified criterion for evaluating the remaining strength of corroded pipe.”, American Gas Association, Washington, DC.
Low, B. K., and Tang, W. H. (1997). “Efficient reliability evaluation using spreadsheet.” J. Eng. Mech., 749–752.
Low, B. K., and Tang, W. H. (2007). “Efficient spreadsheet algorithm for first-order reliability method.” J. Eng. Mech., 1378–1387.
Melchers, R. E. (1999). Structural reliability: Analysis and prediction, 2nd Ed., Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
Nessim, M. A., Zhou, W., Zhou, J., Rothwell, B., and McLamb, M. (2009). “Target reliability levels for design and assessment of onshore natural gas pipelines.” J. Pressure Vessel Technol., 131(6), 1–12.
Stephens, D. R., and Leis, B. N. (2000). “Development of an alternative failure criterion for residual strength of corrosion defects in moderate- to high-toughness pipe.” Proc., 2000 Int. Pipeline Conf., ASME, New York, 781–792.
Stephens, M., and Nessim, M. A. (2006). “Comprehensive approach to corrosion management based on structural reliability methods.” Proc., 6th Int. Pipeline Conf., ASME, Calgary, Canada.
Sudret, B. (2008). “Analytical derivation of the outcrossing rate in time—Variant reliability problems.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 4(5), 353–362.
Zhang, S., and Zhou, W. (2013). “System reliability of corroding pipelines considering stochastic process-based models for defect growth and internal pressure.” Int. J. Pressure Vessels Pip., 111–112, 120–130.
Zhou, W., and Huang, G. X. (2012). “Model error assessments of burst capacity models for corroded pipelines.” Int. J. Pressure Vessels Pip., 99–100, 1–8.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 27, 2014
Accepted: Apr 29, 2015
Published online: Jun 22, 2015
Discussion open until: Nov 22, 2015
Published in print: Feb 1, 2016
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.