Household Hurricane Evacuation Plan Adaptation in Response to Estimated Travel Delay Provided Prior to Departure
Publication: Natural Hazards Review
Volume 23, Issue 3
Abstract
Households have access to real-time travel information via different media. However, the effects of predeparture information about travel delays on households’ evacuation plans (evacuate/stay, departure time, route, and destination choices) remain unknown. Household evacuation plan adaptations undoubtedly affect traffic network loading and the effectiveness of traffic-management strategies. Approximately 400 individuals provided responses to choice experiments in a behavioral intention survey allowing investigation of household hurricane evacuation plan adaptations in three travel delay settings. The data show that deciding to stay is the least frequent adaptation, while changing departure time is the most preferred adaptation. Random parameter logit models with observed heterogeneity were estimated to study how households adapt each choice in their evacuation plans in repeated choice settings. Generally, households are less likely to stay when they are informed of longer travel delays. With a 6-h delay, evacuees are more likely to evacuate a day sooner and change routes. With a 1-h delay, evacuees are more likely to evacuate earlier that day and change destinations.
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Data Availability Statement
All of the data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from Dr. Pamela Murray-Tuite upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This manuscript is based on work supported the National Science Foundation under collaborative awards CMMI-1536808, 1536477, and 1537762. The statements, findings, and conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. The authors thank Joseph Trainor and Taylor Williams of the University of Delaware for their work in data collection.
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Natural Hazards Review
Volume 23 • Issue 3 • August 2022
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Received: Nov 16, 2020
Accepted: Jan 20, 2022
Published online: Mar 24, 2022
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