Behavior of Rural Victims and Local Government during Post-Disaster Reconstruction: Agent-Based Simulation
Publication: Natural Hazards Review
Volume 22, Issue 4
Abstract
Concentrated rural settlement (CRS) was used for housing reconstruction in Sichuan Province, China, after the Wenchuan earthquake. Although CRS is claimed to provide enhanced infrastructure and public services, a sufficient number of farmers should be involved to reduce costs. Existing studies on CRS reconstruction overlook potential conflicts during reconstruction, which may hinder CRS reconstruction. This study explores the collective behaviors of rural victims and the local government in the process of CRS reconstruction. Evolutionary game analysis and agent-based simulation are applied to identify the evolutionary stable strategy for rural victims and the local government. Findings of this study can facilitate the local government in improving post-disaster recovery in terms of CRS. It can also provide an alternative method for investigating the behaviors of stakeholders during resettlement after disasters in other regions and countries.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This paper is a derivative of a conference paper named Conflict Analysis of Concentrated Rural Settlement Development during Post-disaster Reconstruction in China: A Multi-agent Simulation, DOI permalink of which is https://xs.scihub.ltd/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-6190-5_44. There are major technical revisions based on the conference paper satisfying the Journal requirements. The work described in this paper was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71503228), the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China (Grant No. LQ19G030008), the Urban Emergency Management Research Innovation Team of Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, and the Innovation Research Team of Urban Governance and Public Policy of Zhejiang Province.
References
Arnall, A. 2014. “A climate of control: Flooding, displacement and planned resettlement in the Lower Zambezi River valley, Mozambique.” Geog. J. 180 (2): 141–150. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12036.
Artur, L., and D. Hilhorst. 2014. “Floods, resettlement and land access and use in the lower Zambezi, Mozambique.” Land Use Policy 36: 361–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.08.017.
Athukorala, P. C. 2012. “Indian Ocean tsunami: Disaster, generosity and recovery.” Asian Econ. J. 26 (3): 211–231. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8381.2012.02083.x.
Bunce, M. 1982. Rural settlement in an urban world. London: Croom Helm.
Cao, Y. W. 2012. “Three perspectives on new socialist countryside construction.” [In Chinese.] Contemp. China Hist. Stud. 19 (5): 120.
Cernea, M. 1997. “The risks and reconstruction model for resettling displaced populations.” World Dev. 25 (10): 1569–1587.
Chen, X. H., and X. L. Zhang. 2006. “The approach and driving mechanism for developing CRS in the process of urbanization.” [In Chinese.] Spec. Zone Econ. 2006 (1): 150–151.
CPC Central Committee. 2006. “National economy of the People’s Republic of China and outline of the eleventh five-year plan for social development.” Accessed August 14, 2021. http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2006/content_268766.htm.
Cronin, V., and P. Guthrie. 2011. “Community-led resettlement: From a flood-affected slum to a new society in Pune, India.” Environ. Hazards 10 (3–4): 310–326. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2011.594495.
Crooks, A. T., and S. Wise. 2013. “GIS and agent-based models for humanitarian assistance.” Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 41 (Sep): 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2013.05.003.
Fikar, C., P. Hirsch, and P. C. Nolz. 2018. “Agent-based simulation optimization for dynamic disaster relief distribution.” Cent. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 26 (2): 423–442. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-017-0518-3.
Gaillard, J. C. 2008. “Differentiated adjustment to the 1991 Mt Pinatubo resettlement program among lowland ethnic groups of the Philippines.” Australian J. Emergency Manage. 23 (2): 31–39.
Gkartzios, M., and M. Scott. 2009. “Planning for rural housing in the Republic of Ireland: From national spatial strategies to development plans.” Eur. Plann. Stud. 17 (12): 1751–1780. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654310903322298.
Hedjazi, B., M. Ahmed-Nacer, and S. Aknine. 2016. “Multi-agent financial market simulation: Evolutionist approach.” Int. J. Simul. Process Modell. 8 (2): 185–199. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSPM.2013.057538.
Li, J., and R. B. Xiao. 2017. “Agent-based modelling approach for multidimensional opinion polarization in collective behavior.” J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 20 (2): 1–22. https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.3385.
Liang, X., Y. Peng, and G. Q. Shen. 2016. “A game theory based analysis of decision making for green retrofit under different occupancy types.” J. Cleaner Prod. 137 (20): 1300–1312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.07.200.
Liu, Z., C. C. Jacques, S. Szyniszewski, J. K. Guest, B. W. Schafer, T. Igusa, and J. Mitrani-Reiser. 2016. “Agent-based simulation of building evacuation after an earthquake: Coupling human behavior with structural response.” Nat. Hazards Rev. 17 (1): 04015019. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000199.
Maldonado, J. K. 2012. “A new path forward: Researching and reflecting on forced displacement and resettlement: Report on the international resettlement conference: Economics, social justice, and ethics in development-caused involuntary migration, the Hague, 4–8 October 2010.” J. Refugee Stud. 25 (2): 193–220. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/fer036.
Mendes, M. J., B. M. Santos, and J. S. da Costa. 2009. “A Matlab/Simulink multi-agent toolkit for distributed networked fault tolerant control system.” IFAC Proc. Volumes 42 (8): 1073–1078. https://doi.org/10.3182/20090630-4-ES-2003.00177.
MLR (Land and Resources of China). 2007. “Notice of the ministry of land and resources on further regulating the pilot work of linking the increase and decrease of Urban and Rural construction land.” Accessed August 14, 2021. http://www.lcrc.org.cn/zhzsk/zcfg/gwgb/bwj/201508/W020161201014435433945.pdf.
MLR (Land and Resources of China). 2008. “The balance between the increase of construction land in 239 urban areas and the decrease of that in rural areas.” Accessed August 14, 2021. http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2009-03/02/content_1248228.htm.
Muggah, R. 2003. “A tale of two solitudes: Comparing conflict and development-induced internal displacement and involuntary resettlement.” Int. Migr. 41 (5): 5–31. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2000)1:2(67).
Mustapha, K., H. Mcheick, and S. Mellouli. 2013. “Modeling and simulation agent-based of natural disaster complex systems.” Procedia Comput. Sci. 21 (Jan): 148–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2013.09.021.
Na, H. S., and A. Banerjee. 2019. “Agent-based discrete-event simulation model for no-notice natural disaster evacuation planning.” Comput. Indus. Eng. 129 (Mar): 44–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2019.01.022.
Nadeau, R., E. Cloutier, and J. H. Guay. 1993. “New evidence about the existence of a bandwagon effect in the opinion formation process.” Int. Political Sci. Rev. 14 (2): 203–213. https://doi.org/10.1177/019251219301400204.
NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission). 2005. “Exploring into the coordinated urban-rural development strategy.” Accessed May 15, 2010. http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zjgx/t20051130_52160.htm.
Oliver-Smith, A. 1991. “Successes and failures in post-disaster resettlement.” Disasters 15 (1): 12–23. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.1991.tb00423.x.
Olshansky, R. B., L. D. Hopkins, and L. A. Johnson. 2015. “Disaster and recovery: Processes compressed in time.” Nat. Hazard. Rev. 13 (3): 173–178. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000077.
O’Shea, T., P. Bates, and J. Neal. 2020. “Testing the impact of direct and indirect flood warnings on population behaviour using an agent-based model.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 20 (8): 2281–2305. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2281-2020.
Passerini, E. 2000. “Disasters as agents of social change in recovery and reconstruction.” Nat. Hazards Rev. 1 (2): 67–72. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2000)1:2(67).
Peng, Y. 2013. “Decision model for developing concentrated rural settlement in post-disaster reconstruction: A study in China.” Ph.D. dissertation. Dept. of Building and Real Estate, Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ.
Peng, Y. 2015. “A comparison of two approaches to develop concentrated rural settlements after the 5.12 Sichuan Earthquake in China.” Habitat Int. 49 (Oct): 230–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.05.027.
Peng, Y., X. Gu, X. Zhu, F. Zhang, and Y. Song. 2020. “Recovery evaluation of villages reconstructed with concentrated rural settlement after the Wenchuan earthquake.” Nat. Hazards 104 (1): 139–166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04241-z.
Peng, Y., Q. X. Li, and H. J. Bao. 2018a. “Conflict analysis of concentrated rural settlement development during post-disaster reconstruction in China: A multi-agent simulation.” In Proc., 21st Int. Symp. on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate, edited by K. Chau, I. Chan, W. Lu, and C. Webster, 491–502. New York: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-6190-5_44.
Peng, Y., L. Y. Shen, C. Tan, D. L. Tan, and H. Wang. 2013. “Critical determinant factors (CDFs) for developing concentrated rural settlement in post disaster reconstruction: A China study.” Nat. Hazards 66 (2): 355–373. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0488-7.
Peng, Y., L. Y. Shen, X. L. Zhang, and J. J. Ochoa. 2014a. “The feasibility of concentrated rural settlement in a context of post-disaster reconstruction: A study of China.” Disasters 38 (1): 108–124. https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12032.
Peng, Y., Q. P. Shen, L. Y. Shen, C. Lu, and Z. Yuan. 2014b. “A generic decision model for developing concentrated rural settlement in post-disaster reconstruction: A China study.” Nat. Hazards 71 (1): 611–637. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0924-3.
Peng, Y., F. Zhang, S. Jiang, L. Huang, Z. Wang, and Y. Xu. 2018b. “Analysis of farmers’ satisfaction towards concentrated rural settlement development after the Wenchuan earthquake.” Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 31 (Oct): 160–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.025.
Peng, Y., X. Zhu, F. Zhang, L. Huang, J. Xue, and Y. Xu. 2018c. “Farmers’ risk perception of concentrated rural settlement development after the 5.12 Sichuan earthquake.” Habitat Int. 71 (Jan): 169–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.11.008.
Poulos, A., F. Tocornal, J. C. D. L. Llera, and J. Mitrani-Reiser. 2018. “Validation of an agent-based building evacuation model with a school drill.” Transp. Res. Part C: Emerging Technol. 97 (3): 82–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2018.10.010.
Qu, F. T., and G. M. Tian. 2011. “The coordination urban growth between rural development, and the reform of the system of the property right of the rural collective land.” Manage. World 7 (6): 34–46. https://doi.org/10.19744/j.cnki.11-1235/f.2011.06.004.
Rai, V., and A. D. Henry. 2016. “Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices.” Nat. Clim. Change 9 (6): 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2967.
Railsback, S. F. 2006. “Agent-based simulation platforms: Review and development recommendations.” Simul. Modell. Pract. Theory 82 (9): 609–623. https://doi.org/10.1177/0037549706073695.
Seaberg, D., L. Devine, and J. Zhuang. 2017. “A review of game theory applications in natural disaster management research.” Nat. Hazards 89 (3): 1461–1483. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3033-x.
Sun, L. P. 2006. Game: Conflict of interest and harmony in ruptured society. Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press.
Usamah, M., and K. Haynes. 2012. “An examination of the resettlement program at mayon volcano: What can we learn for sustainable volcanic risk reduction?.” Bull. Volcanol. 74 (4): 839–859. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0567-8.
Wang, C. 2011. “A comparative study on the relocation policies of “non-livable” villages in Nanling Mountain.” [In Chinese.] J. Shanxi Agric. Univ. 5 (1): 500–504. https://doi.org/10.13842/j.cnki.issn1671-816x.2011.05.017.
Wang, D. P., L. I. Miao, and L. V. Xiao-Lei. 2013. “A replicator dynamics model of knowledge service network based on evolutionary game theory.” Math. Pract. Theory 43 (20): 33–41. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010075.
Weibull, J. 1995. Evolutionary game theory, 847–858. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Zhang, X. L. 2010. “The path selection of economic and social sustainable development in Yushu disaster area.” [In Chinese.] J. Qinghai Normal Univ. 32 (5): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.16229/j.cnki.issn1000-5102.2010.05.031.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Natural Hazards Review
Volume 22 • Issue 4 • November 2021
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 27, 2019
Accepted: Jun 9, 2021
Published online: Sep 8, 2021
Published in print: Nov 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Feb 8, 2022
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Lianying Yao, Yulu Liang, Xiangyu Li, Zhimin Wang, Shuli Jiang, Cheng Yan, The Influence of Message Framing on Project Managers’ Behavioral Intentions Regarding Construction Waste Reduction, Buildings, 10.3390/buildings12081266, 12, 8, (1266), (2022).