Applying Method of Moments to Model the Reliability of Deteriorating Performance to Asphalt Pavement under Freeze-Thaw Cycles in Cold Regions
Publication: Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering
Volume 27, Issue 1
Abstract
Accurate deterioration models play a critical role in designing and managing transportation infrastructure. Regular models simply consider loading factor and its relative uncertainties. However, climate and environment impacts are not considered, or are just used as certain variables. Thermal cracks and moisture distresses are principal distress forms in cold regions. In this study, a freeze-thaw (F-T) cycle test was used to simulate the influence of adverse weather conditions in cold regions, like moisture and temperature impact. Then method of moments was applied to analyze the pavement reliability functions with various uncertainties. The analytical results showed that the resilient modulus of asphalt concrete mixture declined under F-T cycles. Consequently, pavement structure capacity was reduced. The results also illustrated that the reliability method was capable of accommodating uncertainties in pavement parameters. The sensitivity analysis indicated that F-T cycles had a significant impact on estimating reliability, especially with a large coefficient of variance. The larger the coefficient of variance, the faster the decline in reliability. Reliability analysis results indicate that a decrease in the variability of F-T cycles can significantly increase the estimated reliability. As a result, F-T cycles with uncertainty harm the pavement loading capacity, which should not be neglected in actual engineering. This paper also proposes some instructions for simulating pavement performance models.
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Acknowledgments
The author Wei Si gratefully acknowledges the China Scholarship Council (CSC) for the financial support to study at The University of Texas at Austin. This research was supported by the Western Traffic Construction Science and Technology Project of China, the Applied Basic Research Project of the Ministry of Transport of China (No. 2012 318 79210), the National Science & Technology Support Program during the 12th Five-year Plan Period (No. 2014BAG05B04), the Construction and Science Project of the Ministry of Transport of China (No. 2013 318 490 010), Technical Research and Development of China Communications Construction Company Limited (2011-ZJKJ-16). The authors thank Dr. Zhanmin Zhang and Zhe Han for their help.
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Published In
Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering
Volume 27 • Issue 1 • January 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 10, 2013
Accepted: Jan 8, 2014
Published online: Jan 13, 2014
Discussion open until: Dec 3, 2014
Published in print: Jan 1, 2015
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