Thirty-Year Airfield Pavement Behavioral and Economic Simulation to Improve Budget Allocation for the US Air Force Network
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 29, Issue 1
Abstract
Based on internal estimates, the US Air Force (USAF) has a deferred infrastructure maintenance backlog for its real property portfolio of over $33 billion (about 10% is airfield pavements). Without an increase in funding, divestiture of excess infrastructure, or change in strategy, this backlog is estimated to climb to over $50 billion by 2030. Reversing the growing infrastructure backlog trend requires new methods and strategies to rethink how the USAF invests in its infrastructure. This paper studied three areas aimed at improving network-level budget allocation. The algorithm behavioral and economic airfield simulation tool (BEAST), developed herein, creates a simulation tool capable of modeling behaviors and decisions of 109 organizations managing a global network of airfield pavements over 30 years. The BEAST is used to forecast outcomes of USAF investment decisions utilizing its current management strategies and historical behaviors. Analysis findings are compared to outcomes using a lowest life cycle cost tool, known as rapid asset modeling of pavement sustainment strategies (RAMPSS). The USAF’s current strategy is unsustainable; however, switching to recommendations from BEAST and RAMPSS provides a potentially significant course correction.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions. The BEAST algorithm may be available upon request in some situations; however, the actual PAVER data used as inputs to the algorithm cannot be provided for operational security reasons. The BEAST algorithm will function without this data using anonymized input data or with properly formatted user-supplied data.
Acknowledgments
Permission to publish this research was provided by the USAF. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the official positions of the US Government.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 29 • Issue 1 • March 2023
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 4, 2021
Accepted: Aug 6, 2022
Published online: Nov 14, 2022
Published in print: Mar 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Apr 14, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Air transportation
- Airport and airfield pavements
- Airports and airfields
- Budgets
- Business management
- Decision making
- Decision support systems
- Economic factors
- Financial management
- Infrastructure
- Investments
- Life cycles
- Military engineering
- Practice and Profession
- Transportation engineering
- United States armed forces
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