Flexible Planning for Intercity Multimodal Transport Infrastructure
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 28, Issue 1
Abstract
Planning transport infrastructure development involves high levels of uncertainty due to socioeconomic, environmental, and technological changes. Methodologies currently used in transport planning often have minimal consideration for adaptiveness, leading to costly redesigns or cancellation of entire projects. Presented herein is the investigation of the applicability of dynamic adaptive policy pathways, which is a methodology predominantly used in the field of flood-risk planning, to long-term transport infrastructure planning. Specifically, the paper investigates whether this methodology could facilitate ongoing adaptation to variations in service demand and capacity. It demonstrates this by examining future demand and capacity of road and rail travel between Manchester, United Kingdom, and London using publicly available data and information sources. The study shows that dynamic adaptive policy pathways is useful for identifying periods of time of significant capacity vulnerability for the examined transport network in the coming decade. The method is demonstrated to be valuable for identifying the points in time when policy-makers will have to make decisions and for assessing the impact of transport mode switching. This can have implications of cost-saving and improved service delivery.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the European Community’s H2020 Programme MG7-1-2017 Resilience to extreme (natural and man-made) events, under Grant [769255] “GIS-based infrastructure management system for optimized response to extreme events of terrestrial transport networks (SAFEWAY).”
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Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 28 • Issue 1 • March 2022
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Mar 7, 2021
Accepted: Sep 27, 2021
Published online: Nov 25, 2021
Published in print: Mar 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Apr 25, 2022
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