Multivariable Proportional Hazards-Based Probabilistic Model for Bridge Deterioration Forecasting
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 26, Issue 2
Abstract
Duration-based deterioration modeling approaches have been investigated over the past two decades with a view toward utilizing their prognostic capabilities in accurately identifying maintenance needs and improving asset management under constrained budgets. However, despite significant advances in asset management systems during this time, implementation of such approaches for probabilistic infrastructure deterioration modeling has been limited, resulting in underutilization of their predictive potential. In this paper, a comprehensive framework based on a combination of the Cox proportional hazards method and Markovian theory is presented to develop multivariable deterioration models that probabilistically incorporate the effects of explanatory factors on deterioration over the complete life cycle of a bridge component. Both stationary (time-independent) and nonstationary (time-dependent) transition probability approaches are introduced and compared. Sample results from implementation of this framework on North Carolina’s statewide bridge inspection database containing 35 years of data for more than 17,000 bridges are discussed. The predictive fidelity of the developed models is analyzed relative to the actually recorded condition ratings to demonstrate the effectiveness of these models in accurately forecasting deterioration.
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Acknowledgments
Most of the research presented in this paper was conducted as part of the research project RP 2014-07 sponsored by the North Carolina Department of Transportation. The financial support provided by this grant is greatly appreciated. The contents of this paper reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the views of the NCDOT. The authors are responsible for the accuracy of the data presented herein. Additionally, this paper does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation and does not necessarily reflect official policies of NCDOT. In particular, the authors appreciate the guidance and technical support provided by Cary Clemmons.
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Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 26 • Issue 2 • June 2020
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©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 9, 2017
Accepted: Oct 7, 2019
Published online: Mar 3, 2020
Published in print: Jun 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Aug 3, 2020
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