Accounting for Business Adaptations in Economic Disruption Models
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 25, Issue 1
Abstract
Current economic models specifically designed for infrastructure outage and disaster situations are attempting to incorporate the ability of businesses to prepare for, adapt to, and recover from, disruptions. Using business impact and recovery data from the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, and qualitative validation, this paper presents an empirically derived, transferable model for estimating business recovery following infrastructure and noninfrastructure disruptions. The business behaviors model (BBM) is a logarithmic function that calculates operability (ability to meet demand) over time based on 15 industry sectors and the level of experienced infrastructure and noninfrastructure disruption. The BBM can be applied as a temporal adjustment factor to an economic model, or it can be used as a tool to explore the impact of different disruption types and magnitudes on organization recovery.
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Acknowledgments
The research presented in this paper is based on data from a survey about business behaviors, resilience, and recovery following the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. It is part of a wider project called the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure, which aims at modeling and quantifying the economic implications of infrastructure disruptions. The paper also contributes to the National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges, Economics Toolbox. The financial support of the New Zealand Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment is gratefully acknowledged. The authors also acknowledge the participation of the 541 organizations from Christchurch and surrounding areas that took time to complete the survey and the 7 case study organizations interviewed to help validate the transferability of the model to other contexts.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 25 • Issue 1 • March 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 22, 2016
Accepted: Aug 20, 2018
Published online: Jan 3, 2019
Published in print: Mar 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jun 3, 2019
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