Systemic Estimation of Dam Overtopping Probability: Bayesian Networks Approach
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 23, Issue 2
Abstract
Dam overtopping is one of the major causes of dam breach accidents. Many studies have focused on the estimation of dam overtopping probability. However, the occurrence of a dam overtopping incident is subject to many factors including hydrologic and management factors. In this paper, a model for estimating dam overtopping probability considering spillway gate maintenance activity is established based on Bayesian networks (BN). The interactions between factors that can form a loop in causality are decomposed, and the probability representing the feedback effect is calculated for BN construction. The model is applied to an arch dam with three spillway gates. Statistical data and expert domain knowledge are used to quantify the relationships between variables. The results of a case study demonstrate that gate maintenance activity can significantly influence the occurrence probability of dam overtopping. Inspection frequency and individuals’ situational awareness are important factors that need to be enhanced during dam operation. Moreover, the method’s potential as a management tool is illustrated by examining the effect of embedding a reward system.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Grant No. 51608399 and 41301434, and by Youths Science Foundation of Wuhan Institute of Technology under Grant No. Q201602.
References
ASDSO (Association of State Dam Safety Officials). (2007). “U.S. dam failures and incidents.” Lexington, KY.
Bae, J., Bae, H., Kang, S.-H., and Kim, Y. (2004). “Automatic control of workflow processes using ECA rules.” IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng., 16(8), 1010–1023.
Baroth, J., Schoefs, F., and Breysse, D. (2011). Construction reliability, Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
China Ministry of Water Resources. (2000). Guidelines on dam safety evaluation SL258-2000, China Water Power Press, Beijing.
Cooke, R. M., and Goossens, L. H. J. (2008). “TU Delft expert judgment data base.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 93(5), 657–674.
Delgado-Hernandez, D. J., Morales-Napoles, O., De-Leon-Escobedo, D., and Arteaga-Arcos, J. C. (2014). “A continuous Bayesian network for earth dams’ risk assessment: An application.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 10(2), 225–238.
Endsley, M. R. (1995). “Toward a theory of situation awareness in dynamic systems.” Hum. Factors, 37(1), 32–64.
Endsley, M. R., and Kiris, E. O. (1995). “The out of the loop performance problem and level of control in automation.” Hum. Factors, 37(2), 381–394.
Erdik, T., Duricic, J., and van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M. (2013). “The probabilistic assessment of overtopping reliability on Akyayik Dam.” KSCE J. Civ. Eng., 17(7), 1810–1819.
Fang, W., and Xu, L. (2012). “Multi-scale model of dam safety condition monitoring based on dynamic Bayesian networks.” Intell. Autom. Soft Comput., 18(7), 909–921.
Gander, P., et al. (2011). “Fatigue risk management: Organizational factors at the regulatory and industry/company level.” Accid. Anal. Prev., 43(2), 573–590.
Goodarzi, E., Lee, T. S., and Ziaei, M. (2014). “Risk and uncertainty analysis for dam overtopping—Case study: The Doroudzan Dam, Iran.” J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 8(1), 50–61.
Hedlund, A., Ateg, M., Andersson, I.-M., and Rosen, G. (2010). “Assessing motivation for work environment improvements: Internal consistency, reliability and factorial structure.” J. Saf. Res., 41(2), 145–151.
Helmreich, R., Musson, D. and Sexton, J. (2004). “Human factors and safety in surgery.” Surgical patient safety: Essential information for surgeons in todays environment, P. F. Nora and B. Manuel, eds., American College of Surgeons, Chicago.
Hsu, Y.-C., Tung, Y.-K., and Kuo, J.-T. (2011). “Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 25(1), 35–49.
Hwang, C. L., and Yoon, K. S. (1981). Multiple attribute decision making methods and applications, Springer, Berlin.
ICOLD (International Commission on Large Dams). (1973). Lessons from dam incidents, Paris.
Jitwasinkul, B., and Hadikusumo, B. H. W. (2011). “Identification of important organisational factors influencing safety work behaviours in construction projects.” J. Civ. Eng. Manage., 17(4), 520–528.
Kuo, J.-T., Hsu, Y.-C., Tung, Y.-K., Yeh, K.-C., and Wu, J.-D. (2008). “Dam overtopping risk assessment considering inspection program.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 22(3), 303–313.
Kuo, J.-T., Yen, B.-C., Hsu, Y.-C., and Lin, H.-F. (2007). “Risk analysis for dam overtopping—Feitsui Reservoir as a case study.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 955–963.
Kwon, H.-H., and Moon, Y.-I. (2006). “Improvement of overtopping risk evaluations using probabilistic concepts for existing dams.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 20(4), 223–237.
Le Coze, J. (2005). “Are organisations too complex to be integrated in technical risk assessment and current safety auditing?” Saf. Sci., 43(8), 613–638.
Li, L., Wang, Z., Sheng, J., Wang, Z., Peng, X., and Zhang, S. (2006). Risk assessment and risk management of dams, China Water Power Press, Beijing.
Marais, K., Saleh, J. H., and Leveson, N. G. (2006). “Archetypes for organizational safety.” Saf. Sci., 44(7), 565–582.
Marche, C., and Robert, B. (2002). “Dam failure risk: Its definition and impact on safety assessment of dam structures.” J. Decis. Syst., 11(3/4), 513–534.
Marengo, H. H., Arreguin, F. I., Aldama, A. A., and Morales, V. (2013). “Case study: Risk analysis by overtopping of diversion works during dam construction: The La Yesca hydroelectric project, Mexico.” Struct. Saf., 42, 26–34.
Mattson, M., Torbiörn, I., and Hellgren, J. (2014). “Effects of staff bonus systems on safety behaviors.” Hum. Resour. Manage. Rev., 24(1), 17–30.
Morales-Napoles, O., Delgado-Hernandez, D. J., De-Leon-Escobedo, D., and Arteaga-Arcos, J. C. (2014). “A continuous Bayesian network for earth dams risk assessment: Methodology and quantification.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 10(5), 589–603.
Murphy, K. P. (2001). “The Bayes net toolbox for MATLAB.” 〈http://www.cs.ubc.ca/∼murphyk/Software/BNT/bnt.html〉 (Jan. 10, 2016).
Murphy, K. P., Weiss, Y., and Jordan, M. I. (1999). “Loopy belief propagation for approximate inference: An empirical study.” Proc., Conf. on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI’99), Morgan Kaufmann, Burlington, MA, 467–475.
Naderpour, M., Lu, J., and Zhang, G. (2014a). “A situation risk awareness approach for process systems safety.” Saf. Sci., 64, 173–189.
Naderpour, M., Lu, J., and Zhang, G. (2014b). “The explosion at institute: Modeling and analyzing the situation awareness factor.” Accid. Anal. Prev., 73, 209–224.
NPDP (National Performance of Dams Program). (1997). “Performance of hydraulic systems.” 〈http://npdp.stanford.edu/reports〉 (Jan. 10, 2016).
Peng, M., and Zhang, L. (2012). “Analysis of human risks due to dam-break floods—Part 1: A new model based on Bayesian networks.” Nat. Hazards, 64(1), 903–933.
Peyras, L., et al. (2012). “Probability-based assessment of dam safety using combined risk analysis and reliability methods - Application to hazards studies.” Eur. J. Environ. Civ. Eng., 16(7), 795–817.
Poduje, A. C. C., Belli, A., and Haberlandt, U. (2014). “Dam risk assessment based on univariate versus bivariate statistical approaches: A case study for Argentina.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 59(12), 2216–2232.
Reason, J. T. (1997). Managing the risks of organizational accidents, Ashgate, Aldershot, U.K.
Rohaninejad, M., and Bagherpour, M. (2013). “Application of risk analysis within value management: A case study in dam engineering.” J. Civ. Eng. Manage., 19(3), 364–374.
Sneddon, A., Mearns, K., and Flin, R. (2013). “Stress, fatigue, situation awareness and safety in offshore drilling crews.” Saf. Sci., 56, 80–88.
Sorensen, L. J., and Stanton, N. A. (2013). “Y is best: How distributed situational awareness is mediated by organisational structure and correlated with task success.” Saf. Sci., 56, 72–79.
Stanton, N. A., Chambers, P. R. G., and Piggott, J. (2001). “Situational awareness and safety.” Saf. Sci., 39(3), 189–204.
Sun, Y., Chang, H., Miao, Z., and Zhong, D. (2012). “Solution method of overtopping risk model for earth dams.” Saf. Sci., 50(9), 1906–1912.
Sutrisnowati, R. A., Bae, H., and Song, M. (2015). “Bayesian network construction from event log for lateness analysis in port logistics.” Comput. Ind. Eng., 89, 53–66.
Tang, W. H., and Yen, B. C. (1991). “Dam safety inspection scheduling.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 214–229.
Thompson, K. D., Stedinger, J. R., and Heath, D. C. (1997). “Evaluation and presentation of dam failure and flood risks.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 216–227.
Weber, P., Medina-Oliva, G., Simon, C., and Iung, B. (2012). “Overview on Bayesian networks applications for dependability, risk analysis and maintenance areas.” Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell., 25(4), 671–682.
Williamson, A., Lombardi, D. A., Folkard, S., Stutts, J., Courtney, T. K., and Connor, J. L. (2011). “The link between fatigue and safety.” Accid. Anal. Prev., 43(2), 498–515.
Xu, Y., Zhang, L., and Jia, J. (2011). “Diagnosis of embankment dam distresses using Bayesian networks—Part II: Diagnosis of a specific distressed dam.” Can. Geotech. J., 48(11), 1645–1657.
Yi, S. (1998). “The world’s most catastrophic dam failures: The August 1975 collapse of the Banqiao and Shimantan Dams.” 〈http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/aug1975.htm〉 (Jan. 10, 2016).
Zan, D., and Ye, S. (2000). Engineering hydrology, China Water Power Press, Beijing.
Zhang, L., Xu, Y., Jia, J., and Zhao, C. (2011). “Diagnosis of embankment dam distresses using Bayesian networks—Part I: Global-level characteristics based on a dam distress database.” Can. Geotech. J., 48(11), 1630–1644.
Zhang, S., and Tan, Y. (2014). “Risk assessment of earth dam overtopping and its application research.” Nat. Hazards, 74(2), 717–736.
Zhong, D., Sun, Y., and Li, M. (2011). “Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam.” Nat. Hazards, 59(1), 129–147.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 23 • Issue 2 • June 2017
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 12, 2015
Accepted: Jun 21, 2016
Published online: Sep 21, 2016
Discussion open until: Feb 21, 2017
Published in print: Jun 1, 2017
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.