Assessing Climate Change Impact on System Reliability of Power Distribution Systems Subjected to Hurricanes
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 23, Issue 1
Abstract
Damage to power distribution systems due to hurricanes is likely to increase due to a possible increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones caused by climate change. This will exacerbate the already high cost incurred by utility companies and communities due to damage to distribution systems by hurricanes. Consequently, long-term investment in critical civil infrastructure systems, such as distribution systems, requires long-term planning that incorporates the potential impact of climate change. This can only be achieved through a comprehensive risk analysis framework for evaluating the impact of climate change and studying the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies. This paper presents a framework for incorporating the potential impact of climate change in the reliability analysis of power distribution systems subject to hurricane hazards. The framework incorporates a time-dependent hurricane hazard model, time-dependent fragility model, system reliability evaluation, and a life cycle cost analysis for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of various climate change adaptation strategies. A notional power distribution system located in the hurricane-prone state of Florida is used to demonstrate the proposed framework.
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Acknowledgments
We gratefully acknowledge Dr. Alex Sprintson and Dr. Kelly Brumbelow of Texas A&M University for providing the Micropolis power distribution system. The research described in this paper was supported, in part, by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Catalyzing New International Collaborations Program and the Infrastructure Management and Extreme Events Program under Grant No. NSF–1050443. This support is gratefully acknowledged. However, the writers take sole responsibility for the views expressed in this paper, which may not represent the position of the NSF or their respective institutions.
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Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 23 • Issue 1 • March 2017
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 23, 2015
Accepted: Mar 10, 2016
Published online: May 19, 2016
Discussion open until: Oct 19, 2016
Published in print: Mar 1, 2017
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