Abstract
In the task of storm sewer design, the accuracy of the method of choice for estimating the risk value is not a trivial task, because it improves the safety and effectiveness of the entire system. Hence, two methods for risk assessment of a storm sewer in an urban area are presented here. The first method is fuzzy risk analysis, in which uncertainty parameters are treated as fuzzy numbers. To do so, a novel formula to calculate the fuzzy risk of sewer flooding with the aim of implementing the alpha-cut principle when runoff and the Manning roughness coefficients are the only uncertainty parameters, is introduced here. The fuzzy number represents the runoff coefficient obtained from the data from seven rainfall events recorded in an experimental urban catchment. In the second method, the fuzzy numbers are replaced with various associated probability distributions, in which all the possible combinations are considered. Then, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique calculates the corresponding probabilistic risk of flooding. It is observed that computing the limit values of the MCS produces an interval that closely tracks values of the calculated risk using the fuzzy technique. This means that the fuzzy alpha-cut and MCS methods provide similar results and indicate that the fuzzy method for storm sewer risk assessment has acceptable accuracy (more than 97%). But, the representation of uncertainty and the computation time is different in these methods. Hence, the superiority of one method over another depends on the nature of the problem.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some of the data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The available data is listed in Tables 1 and 4.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their detailed and valuable comments and suggestions.
References
Abebe, A. J., V. Guinot, and D. P. Solomatine. 2000. “Fuzzy alpha-cut vs Monte Carlo techniques in assessing uncertainty in model parameters.” In Proc., 4th Int. Conf. on Hydroinformatics. Iowa City, IA: Univ. of Iowa.
Ahmad, S. S., and S. P. Simonovic. 2013. “Spatial and temporal analysis of urban flood risk assessment.” Urban Water J. 10 (1): 26–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2012.690437.
Barzkar, A., M. Najafzadeh, and F. Homaei. 2022. “Evaluation of drought events in various climatic conditions using data-driven models and a reliability-based probabilistic model.” Nat. Hazard. 110 (3): 1931–1952. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05019-7.
Becciu, G., and A. Paoletti. 1997. “Random characteristics of runoff coefficient in urban catchments.” Water Sci. Technol. 36 (8–9): 39–44. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.1997.0641.
Birgani, Y. T., and F. Yazdandoost. 2016. “Resilience in urban drainage risk management systems.” Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Water Manage. 169 (1): 3–16. https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.14.00043.
Brown, F. B. 2010. Recent advances and future prospects for Monte Carlo. Los Alamos, NM: Los Alamos National Lab.
Caradot, N., D. Granger, J. Chapgier, F. Cherqui, and B. Chocat. 2011. “Urban flood risk assessment using sewer flooding databases.” Water Sci. Technol. 64 (4): 832–840. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2011.611.
Chaira, T. 2019. Fuzzy set and its extension. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Chongfu, H., and S. Peijun. 1999. “Fuzzy risk and calculation.” In Proc., 18th Int. Conf. of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society-NAFIPS (Cat. No. 99TH8397), 90–94. New York: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/NAFIPS.1999.781660.
Chow, V. T. 1959. Open channel hydraulics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Dubois, D. J., and H. Prade. 1980. Fuzzy sets and systems: Theory and applications. New York: Academic Press.
Fu, G., D. Butler, S.-T. Khu, and S. Sun. 2011. “Imprecise probabilistic evaluation of sewer flooding in urban drainage systems using random set theory.” Water Resour. Res. 47 (2): 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008944.
Fu, G., and Z. Kapelan. 2013. “Flood analysis of urban drainage systems: Probabilistic dependence structure of rainfall characteristics and fuzzy model parameters.” J. Hydroinf. 15 (3): 687–699. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2012.160.
Ganoulis, J., H. Mpimpas, L. Duckstein, and I. Bogardi. 1996. “Fuzzy arithmetic for ecological risk management.” In Risk-based decision making in water resources VII, edited by Y. Haimes, D. Moser, and E. Stakhin, 401–415. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Ghavami, S. M., Z. Borzooei, and J. Maleki. 2020. “An effective approach for assessing risk of failure in urban sewer pipelines using a combination of GIS and AHP-DEA.” Process Saf. Environ. Prot. 133 (Jan): 275–285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2019.10.036.
Gouri, R., and V. Srinivas. 2017. “A fuzzy approach to reliability based design of storm water drain network.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 31 (5): 1091–1106. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1299-2.
Homaei, F., and M. Najafzadeh. 2020. “A reliability-based probabilistic evaluation of the wave-induced scour depth around marine structure piles.” Ocean Eng. 196 (Jan): 106818. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106818.
Hosseini, S. M., and A. Ghasemi. 2012. “Hydraulic performance analysis of sewer systems with uncertain parameters.” J. Hydroinf. 14 (3): 682–696. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2011.129.
ISO. 2009. Risk management–Principles and guidelines. Geneva: ISO.
Johnson, P. A. 1996. “Uncertainty of hydraulic parameters.” J. Hydraul. Eng. 122 (2): 112–114. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1996)122:2(112).
Kirchsteiger, C. 1999. “On the use of probabilistic and deterministic methods in risk analysis.” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 12 (5): 399–419. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0950-4230(99)00012-1.
Lee, E. H., and J. H. Kim. 2019. “Development of a reliability index considering flood damage for urban drainage systems.” KSCE J. Civ. Eng. 23 (4): 1872–1880. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-019-0408-4.
Li, F., Z.-K. Li, and C.-B. Yang. 2011. “Risk assessment of levee engineering based on triangular fuzzy number and analytic network process and its application.” In Modeling risk management in sustainable construction, 415–426. New York: Springer.
Liu, L., X. Li, G. Xia, J. Jin, and G. Chen. 2016. “Spatial fuzzy clustering approach to characterize flood risk in urban storm water drainage systems.” Nat. Hazard. 83 (3): 1469–1483. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2371-4.
Mays, L. W., and Y.-K. Tung. 2002. Hydrosystems engineering and management. Highlands Ranch, CO: Water Resources Publication.
Najafzadeh, M., F. Homaei, and H. Farhadi. 2021a. “Reliability assessment of water quality index based on guidelines of national sanitation foundation in natural streams: Integration of remote sensing and data-driven models.” Artif. Intell. Rev. 54 (6): 4619–4651. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10462-021-10007-1.
Najafzadeh, M., F. Homaei, and S. Mohamadi. 2021b. “Reliability evaluation of groundwater quality index using data-driven models.” Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 29 (6): 8174–8190. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16158-6.
Nilsen, V., J. A. Lier, J. T. Bjerkholt, and O. G. Lindholm. 2011. “Analysing urban floods and combined sewer overflows in a changing climate.” J. Water Clim. Change 2 (4): 260–271. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2011.042.
Pappenberger, F., P. Matgen, K. J. Beven, J.-B. Henry, L. Pfister, and P. Fraipont. 2006. “Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions.” Adv. Water Resour. 29 (10): 1430–1449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.012.
Psarrou, E., I. Tsoukalas, and C. Makropoulos. 2018. “A Monte-Carlo-based method for the optimal placement and operation scheduling of sewer mining units in urban wastewater networks.” Water 10 (2): 200. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020200.
Salah, A., and O. Moselhi. 2015. “Contingency modelling for construction projects using fuzzy-set theory.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manage. 22 (2): 214–241. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-03-2014-0039.
Samarinas, N., and C. Evangelides. 2021. “Discharge estimation for trapezoidal open channels applying fuzzy transformation method to a flow equation.” Water Supply 21 (6): 2893–2903. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2021.155.
Schmitt, T. G., M. Thomas, and N. Ettrich. 2004. “Analysis and modeling of flooding in urban drainage systems.” J. Hydrol. 299 (3–4): 300–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(04)00374-9.
Shariat, R., A. Roozbahani, and A. Ebrahimian. 2019. “Risk analysis of urban stormwater infrastructure systems using fuzzy spatial multi-criteria decision making.” Sci. Total Environ. 647 (Jan): 1468–1477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.074.
Shrestha, B., R. K. Reddy, and L. Duckstein. 1990. “Fuzzy reliability in hydraulics.” In Proc., 1st Int. Symp. on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, 167–172. New York: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/isuma.1990.151244.
Shrestha, R. R., A. Bárdossy, and F. Nestmann. 2007. “Analysis and propagation of uncertainties due to the stage–discharge relationship: A fuzzy set approach.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 52 (4): 595–610. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.4.595.
Shrestha, R. R., and S. P. Simonovic. 2010. “Fuzzy set theory based methodology for the analysis of measurement uncertainties in river discharge and stage.” Can. J. Civ. Eng. 37 (3): 429–440. https://doi.org/10.1139/L09-151.
Sun, S., G. Fu, S. Djordjević, and S.-T. Khu. 2012. “Separating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties: Probabilistic sewer flooding evaluation using probability box.” J. Hydrol. 420–421 (Feb): 360–372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.12.027.
Thorndahl, S., and P. Willems. 2008. “Probabilistic modelling of overflow, surcharge and flooding in urban drainage using the first-order reliability method and parameterization of local rain series.” Water Res. 42 (1–2): 455–466. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2007.07.038.
Torgersen, G., J. K. Rød, K. Kvaal, J. T. Bjerkholt, and O. G. Lindholm. 2017. “Evaluating flood exposure for properties in urban areas using a multivariate modelling technique.” Water 9 (5): 318. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9050318.
Tran, D., J. Mashford, R. May, and D. Marlow. 2012. “Development of a fuzzy risk ranking model for prioritizing manhole inspection.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng. 26 (4): 550–557. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000162.
Tung, Y.-K. 1990. “Mellin transform applied to uncertainty analysis in hydrology/hydraulics.” J. Hydraul. Eng. 116 (5): 659–674. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1990)116:5(659).
Tung, Y.-K., and B.-C. Yen. 2005. Hydrosystems engineering uncertainty analysis. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Ursino, N. 2015. “Risk analysis of sustainable urban drainage and irrigation.” Adv. Water Resour. 83 (Sep): 277–284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.06.011.
Van Bijnen, M., H. Korving, and F. Clemens. 2012. “Impact of sewer condition on urban flooding: An uncertainty analysis based on field observations and Monte Carlo simulations on full hydrodynamic models.” Water Sci. Technol. 65 (12): 2219–2227. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2012.134.
Zadeh, L. A. 1973. “Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes.” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. SMC-3 (1): 28–44. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.1973.5408575.
Zadeh, L. A. 1996. Fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy systems: Selected papers by Lotfi A Zadeh. Singapore: World Scientific.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 7, 2021
Accepted: Apr 12, 2022
Published online: Jun 13, 2022
Published in print: Aug 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Nov 13, 2022
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Siamak Rezazadeh Baghal, Saeed Reza Khodashenas, Fuzzy risk-based technique for the design of an ogee spillway in a diversion dam based on hydrological return period discharge and the resistance-load theory, Journal of Hydrology, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129004, 617, (129004), (2023).
- Siamak Rezazadeh Baghal, Saeed Reza Khodashenas, Fuzzy Risk Assessment of a Stormwater Storage System in a Poorly Gauged Mine Site: The Case of the Golgohar Mine SiteFuzzy-Risikobewertung eines Regenwasserspeichersystems in einem schlecht vermessenen Minengelände: Der Fall der Golgohar-MinenanlageEvaluación con lógica difusa del riesgo de un sistema de almacenamiento de aguas pluviales en un emplazamiento minero mal medido: El caso de la mina de Golgohar缺乏资料的矿区排蓄水系统模糊风险评估:以Golgohar 矿为例, Mine Water and the Environment, 10.1007/s10230-022-00911-5, (2022).